EXPECTATIONS
The Midterms
We are still 2 weeks out from the midterms, but Halloween is a Big Deal here at the Consulate, and we can't count on having time to address the matter later, so we will com... View MoreEXPECTATIONS
The Midterms
We are still 2 weeks out from the midterms, but Halloween is a Big Deal here at the Consulate, and we can't count on having time to address the matter later, so we will commit our predictions here.
Chambers
The Democrats seem certain to take the House. The margins, both in seats, and percentages, are wide enough that it's a pretty safe call.
The Senate is Farr closer. A short version is, the Democrats Could take it, but they have to get almost all of the competitive seats.
My own advice is, watch Iowa. Last I checked, that state is a complete toss-up, so If the Republican can hold Iowa, they will probably hold enough other states in play to maintain control of the Senate.
Our Preference (as opposed to our expectation) is a tie.
That would keep Vice president Vance (and thus his buffoonery) often tied down to Congress, and thus away from breakable objects.
Consequences
Not as much as is commonly imagined, really.
The President will have to negotiate to get things done - which is what the Founders intended. And that's not something he shies away from.
.
GENERAL LEE, & PRESIDENT TRUMP
A Tragedy
In an earlier Post ("The Mandate of Heaven"), we drew parallels between President Trump and Jeanne D'Arc.
... View MoreGENERAL LEE, & PRESIDENT TRUMP
A Tragedy
In an earlier Post ("The Mandate of Heaven"), we drew parallels between President Trump and Jeanne D'Arc.
Here, we will draw another.
The Loyal Traitor
Robert E. Lee was already well thought of as a military man even before the Civil War began. In fact the Union hoped he would be instrumental in suppressing the rebellion.
But Lee considered his loyalty to properly be to his home State of Virginia, and resigned his commission in the US Army, to fight fo rthe South.
And fight he did. His leadership was instrumental in holding off numericaly superior Union forces in the eastern theater, for several Years.
His maneuvers were so adroit, that one senior Union general was chagrined, upon taking up a command, to find his subordinates too worried about what Lee was going to do, to plan what They were going to do.
Over time, this sort of legend grew, on both sides of the lines. And in time, he seems to have started believing the legend himself.
The Bill Comes Due
The Confederate invasion of Pennsylvania in the summer of '63 was probably strategically justified. A battlefield success here might cut Washington off from the rest of the Union, and while the city was entirely too fortified for the Confederates to plausibly threaten, it would be embarrassing enough to win points on the diplomatic front. Which would have mattered, because if England chose not to respect the Union blockade of Southern ports, they had the naval power to make that stick.
Similarly, one cannot call the battle of Gettysburg, as a whole, a mistake by Lee. One of his brigades approached the town, looking for a place to loot shoes, and stumbled into the outer screen of the Union army. Units on both sides accumulated, nad the batle expanded on its own.
But Pickett's charge is on Lee. Pickett's own immediate superior, Longstreet, did not want to pass on the order, thinking the ridge unassailable. But Lee was convinced that His men, under His leadership, could not fail.
But they did.
The result was the end of the last hope for a Confederate victory.
The South had pinned their hopes to one man - and in the process, encouraged him to take one too many risks.
The Chosen One
Donald Trump used to be a Democrat. He switched parties, and ultimately ran for office (with No personal political experience).
And against the expectations of almost everyone, he won.
His first term was a whirlwind of achievement.
Then came Covid - and with it voting by mail. And a stolen election. And then the politicized prosecutions - with hints of more if he didn't give up..
Anyone else would probably have knuckeled under. But not President Trump. He fought back, ran again (for a seat that at this point he was Owed), and barely survived an assassination atttempt in the process.
And he Won.
President Trump has long been favored by much of the religious Right, and after the Butler shooting, there was a lot of talk in those circles about his survival being a divine miracle, showing the favor of Heaven.
And I think he started to believe the hype.
The Price
President Trump had always been given to hyperbole; it was something his supporters were used to - and in many cases welcomed. But in his second term, the governers really did come off. Appearances seemed to mean nothing. Statements were made that seem . . . Hard to justify. Actions were taken when they would Obviously lead to embarrassing retreats.
But things ticked along. Domestic matters, at least on subjects touched by Federal policy, mostly improved.
But President Trump's capacity to carry out his agenda, without apology or effective oversight, depended heavily on his party's control of Congress. And political mistakes were being made that would threaten that.
The Russians, contained to collapse by Reagan and his successors, resumed their old program, and when President Trump resumed office, he did . . . Nothing. Nothing decisive, anyway. He let Putin play him along, and shamefully participated in Vance's disgraceful Oval Office ambush of President Zelenskyy.
Precisely when one of the primary enemies of Western civilization was at its most vulnerable, he declined to help finish them.
The mantle of Leader of the Free World, for so long synonymous with the American Presidency, was, for the first time in my long life, clearly vacant.
I am old, and can give you the perspective of a "Boomer". My generation spent our formative years under threat of thermonuclear annihilation, on perhaps 30 minutes notice, by Russians. Our various Presidents, good and bad, held that at bay with a massive military, and (just as importantly) Resolve.
And now we see the Russians are back.
But the resolve clearly isn't.
In fact, we see the President, and many in his cabinet, parroting Russian talking points.
My generation can accept a Lot. Age teaches compromise. But one thing that is particularly hard for many of us to swallow is Russian agency within the walls of the White House.
It's like your father dies, and your mother remarries, and then your new step-father adopts the vicious hoodlum who used to torment you in school.
You may not see things our way. But we are not all dead yet, and we vote. A Lot.
I am not empowered to correct the Adminstration's foreign policy errors . But I Will not support them. And, judging from the polling I am seeing, I am not the only one.
All of this was avoidable. But President Trump appears to have been so convinced of the correctness of his approach, that there would be no consequences.
I would blame evil counselors, but we are all ultimately responsible for who we take advice from.
UKRAINIAN DRONES = JESUS
We were watching footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centers in Donetsk, and saw this comment, equating the Ukrainian drone campign with an evangelical mission:
Syria says man with disability killed by Israeli fire in south
Syria says man with disability killed by Israeli fire in south | World News
QUANDRY
What is Appropriate?
I am a very opinionated person - I usually have no trouble composing a firm position on a given topic.
But, just this once, I am at a loss. ... View MoreQUANDRY
What is Appropriate?
I am a very opinionated person - I usually have no trouble composing a firm position on a given topic.
But, just this once, I am at a loss.
Holiday Peparations
Halloween is a big deal at the Consulate, so this week, we were zooming around, stocking up on relevant supplies.
Some of these items are in limited supply in our host community. So what we get, may be all we Can get.
So imagine our chagrin upon returning to the Consualte, and finding the entire stock of that items missing.
Had they slipped under the seats of the Consular limousine when we weren't looking (we once mislaid our operator's license that way) ?
Mutiple searches found nothing but old trash.
Had we dropped it somewhere?
Had we forgotten to lock the car, allowing some opportunsitic pilferage?
No telling, and it didn't really matter; they were gone, almost certianly past recovery. I would have to seek more - of an item we had already cleaned out priamry sources for.
Which I did. Days more of zooming around the county, to potential secondary providers. And I found some.
But not quite enough.
My Arm is Complete again!
And then, returning from today's search, I happend to stick a hand into an area of the limo that I had Already Checked BeFore - and Found the original batch!
We conclude that this happened because there are curretnly no female staff at the Consualte (we all know that the uterus is a tracking organ).
SO . . . .
Should I be thrilled that I found what I mislaid, and are now foully stocked?
Or should I be depressed at my own senility?
OMENS?
The Wages of Hubris
We at the Consulate normally eschew appeals to superstition - bu does this not sound like something out of a Roman legend?
... View MoreOMENS?
The Wages of Hubris
We at the Consulate normally eschew appeals to superstition - bu does this not sound like something out of a Roman legend?
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16230147/pete-hegseth-eisenhower-globe-damage-pentagon.html
page=1&profile_user_id=525142&year=&month=
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