Robert (War Expert) Pape: Is A Second Civil War About To Begin?

What if the most dangerous moment of the 2026 midterms isn't Election Day, but the weeks after it? Robert Pape has tracked political violence for 30 years and runs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago. In October 2020 he warned that the real risk ran all the way to the seating of Congress, before anyone was talking about January 6th. Here he walks through more than 20 nationally representative surveys showing that tens of millions of Americans on both sides now support political violence, why he calls this era violent populism, and the prediction he sealed in an envelope about what happens if Democrats win.CONNECT WITH ROBERTProfile: https://cpost.uchicago.edu/people/profile/robert_pape/CPOST: https://cpost.uchicago.edu/X: https://x.com/ProfessorPapeLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-pape/Substack: https://professorrobertpape.substack.com/Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1620979586BECOME A SPONSOR:Email: will@decodedgenius.comFOLLOW DECODED GENIUSWebsite: https://decodedgenius.com/Email updates: https://decodedgenius.com/subscribe/FOLLOW WILL CANNONInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/iamwillcannon/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cannon/Website: https://iamwillcannon.com/WHAT WE DECODED→ The history book on plagues that led him to expect a rise in US political violence in spring 2020, before it arrived→ Why January 6th defendants looked nothing like the unemployed militia members behind earlier attacks→ What more than 20 nationally representative surveys show about support for political violence on both sides→ How "permission structures" nudge volatile individuals over the edge, and the term he coined for this era: violent populism→ Why support rose on both sides after the 2024 election, from about 8% to 14% on the right and 8 to 10% to 16% on the left→ Why he doesn't expect a civil war or a sudden slide into authoritarianism, and what he fears instead→ The October 2020 warning he gave on Chicago Tonight about the stretch through the seating of Congress→ His sealed-envelope prediction for the 2026 midterms, and the one safeguard he wants in place while votes are castCHAPTERS00:00:40 The Sealed Envelope & The Most Dangerous Midterms00:00:57 30 Years Tracking Political Violence & A Lecture On COVID00:03:53 Plagues And Peoples & Why Pandemics Pull Countries Apart00:06:31 George Floyd & The Summer Of 202000:08:36 January 6th, Doctors, Lawyers & CEOs00:12:00 David Axelrod & 20 Nationally Representative Surveys00:13:18 Tens Of Millions, Permission Structures & Violent Populism00:16:58 Is It Growing? From 8% To 16%00:21:11 Civil War, Authoritarianism & Constitutional Hardball00:25:43 China, Election Warnings & Planting Seeds00:27:26 2028 & Grading Trump's Presidency00:29:42 The October 2020 Warning Before January 6th00:31:28 The Envelope: Will Democrats Be Seated?00:34:53 Could It Get Violent? & One Step To Take Now#DecodedGenius #RobertPape #Midterms2026 #PoliticalViolence #Democracy