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The Federalist Papers Trump holds all the cards, and Ottawa and Mexico City know it.Back on July 1, the United States refused to renew the USMCA in its current form. Canada and Mexico both wanted a smooth 16-year extension. They didn't get it. Now the deal sits under annual review, and the leverage sits in Washington.The numbers explain why.Roughly 73 percent of everything Canada sells abroad goes to the United States. Mexico ships about 80 percent of its exports north. You don't walk away from your biggest customer. You negotiate with him.So what are they doing instead? Stalling.Some in both capitals seem to think the November midterms will change the math. They're hoping a new Congress will soften the pressure and bring back the old, comfortable arrangement.It won't. Trump has two more years in office, and the trade tools he is using run through the executive branch. Neither Canada nor Mexico can afford to sit out 24 months of uncertainty while factories and investors wait for answers.Then there's the "we'll trade with someone else" bluff.Canada has been courting China. Both countries talk up Europe and Asia. But no market on Earth can replace the one sitting right across the border, with the roads, rails and pipelines already built.And Europe? It has its own problems. Sky-high energy costs, sluggish growth, and years of open-door migration policy have sparked protests and political upheaval across the continent. It is in no position to rescue anyone.Alexander Hamilton saw this coming. In Federalist No. 11, he argued that a united American market would be leverage, forcing foreign nations to compete for access to it on our terms. That's exactly what's playing out.Canada and Mexico can keep pretending. Or they can eat a little crow, come back to the table, and cut a fair deal.The clock is ticking, and it isn't ticking for Trump.Who blinks first, Canada or Mexico?