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Scott Bessent went on Fox on Saturday and said oil could eventually fall to between 40 and 50 dollars a barrel once the Iran conflict ends. He said the American economy is in what he called the liftoff phase. He made a similar forecast to Steve Bannon the day before.Here is what happened in the five days since.Brent crude passed 100 dollars a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July, then reached 105.20 on Thursday morning, about 37 dollars above where it sat a year ago. West Texas is trading above 98.Diesel futures crossed 5 dollars a gallon on Thursday, the first time since April 2022. At the pump the national average hit a record 5.94.Gasoline is averaging 4.22 a gallon, up roughly 42 per cent from the 2.98 average before the war began, and more than a dollar higher than this time last year.In California, GasBuddy recorded five stations selling diesel at 9.999, the highest figure their dispensers can physically display.The supply picture explains it. Hormuz still handles about a fifth of global oil flows and product exports through it remain well below pre-war levels. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries pushed Moscow to extend its diesel export ban to the end of September. American distillate inventories are heading below 100 million barrels, a level not seen since 2003, and refineries have run at or above 95 per cent of capacity for twelve straight weeks, the longest streak since 2000.There is no spare capacity left to bring online.Two American industries feel this immediately. Farms run on diesel and the fall harvest is starting. And Maine has the highest proportion of households in the country heating with oil, going into winter.Then the second-order effects. Producer prices rose the most in three months on energy. Treasury yields surged. Futures markets moved to price a roughly 70 per cent chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike, up from 64 before the data.Bessent's forecasting record was already the story before this. He has predicted 3 to 3.5 per cent growth five separate times since 2025. In September 2025 he predicted the Supreme Court would uphold the emergency tariffs, and it struck them down. He forecast long-term yields would fall, and this week they surged.Goldman Sachs has Brent at 60 dollars for the fourth quarter. Bessent said 40.It is currently 105.#OilPrices #Trump #inflation #USIranCrisis #energy