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The Big Picture The real definition of good luck is when preparedness meets opportunity. Some very savvy investors once told me that you cannot time the market. Those that do like day traders are just kidding themselves and in reality, do not end up doing any better than gamblers in Las Vegas. So, you might as well go out drink, carouse and have fun while you piss away all your money. Over the years I have found this to be eminently true. However, I have also found this to be true only for short term investing, despite the admonishment against timing the market I have found that all wise investors do absolutely do what they don’t admit to publicly. If you step back and objectively look at the big picture it is not only possible but necessary to time to market in the long run. By the big picture I do not mean just the stock market but, the Economy as a whole consisting of Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, commodities, Interest rates, Inflation, Unemployment, Recession, and Real estate. All these indicators combine to paint the big picture and when they all say the same thing you better listen. In the mid 70’s I was approached by a kindly experienced and mature gentleman named Nick Salliani who as my mentor attempted to advise me that difficult times were coming and that I should start preparing myself for the upcoming recession. “You are too young to remember so you haven’t been through tuff times before, I have.” It is not that I did not believe him, it is just that after considering his words I found myself clueless as to what action to take. He was right as rain. Nixon took us off the gold standard and created the petrol dollar, Ford did virtually nothing, Carter did everything wrong economically, caused the oil embargo and fueled massive inflation. Energy prices were on the rise. Gasoline prices doubled in a matter of months, inflation was running rampant, mortgage rates started to increase, unemployment was on the rise and I was shortly out of a job. In the next the couple of years the Real Estate bubble burst, the economy plummeted and the stock market fell. I guess it was a good thing that I did not have any investments to lose at that time. Over the years I have gained the experience and wisdom the hard way and this time when I saw the precursor to economic problems on the horizon, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, I knew that the economy would be turning down in the reasonably near future. As the recession approached there were more and more experts jumping on the band wagon and extolling warnings of impending economic problems. Then a few years later I could see another economic disaster in the making as the sub-prime mortgage fiasco hit. Most people indulge in the “Ignorance of Bliss” until it eventually bit them in the ass. Experience is the best and worst teacher!