Judy Gilford
on December 29, 2025
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🚨 Cleveland Clinic Study Exposes Ongoing Failure of Annual Flu Vaccines
Public health authorities continue to promote annual influenza vaccination as essential, yet emerging evidence—including a recent preprint from the prestigious Cleveland Clinic—reinforces a pattern of inconsistent and often negligible effectiveness that has persisted for years.
In the 2024-2025 season, researchers at Cleveland Clinic tracked over 53,000 employees (mean age 42, predominantly healthy working-aged adults).
Despite 82% vaccination uptake, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness was calculated at -26.9% (95% CI: -51.0% to -6.6%), indicating vaccinated individuals had a 27% higher risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza (hazard ratio 1.27) compared to unvaccinated peers.
Cumulative incidence rose more rapidly in the vaccinated group during peak activity.
This is not an isolated anomaly.
Historical data reveal flu vaccine effectiveness fluctuates dramatically due to frequent antigenic mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating viruses:
• CDC estimates show seasonal VE ranging from as low as 10-19% in poor-match years (e.g., 2014-2015) to 40-60% in better matches.
• In mismatched seasons, multiple studies have reported low or negative effectiveness, including -12% overall in one decade-long Korean analysis and instances of -46.9% in specific years.
• Cochrane reviews of randomized evidence in healthy adults conclude that vaccination reduces confirmed influenza from ~2% to ~1% annually, meaning 99 out of 100 vaccinated individuals derive no direct benefit against infection, while evidence for reducing severe outcomes or mortality is often low-certainty or insufficient.
The inherent challenge of annual reformulation—predicting dominant strains months in advance—leads to recurrent mismatches, rendering the vaccine unreliable for preventing infection in many seasons.
Billions are invested globally in campaigns premised on robust protection, yet real-world performance in working-aged populations frequently falls short, as evidenced by this latest Cleveland Clinic observation and prior seasons.
While the preprint awaits peer review and focuses on infection (not severity), it aligns with a broader body of data questioning the value of universal annual flu shots, particularly for healthy adults where baseline risk is low.
đź”— Study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.01.30.25321421v4
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