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The first debate of the US presidential election will be held at 9 pm Eastern Time on Thursday (27th). In addition to being seen as an opportunity for candidates to reverse the election situation, Wall Street analysts have also begun to think about what "Biden re-election concept stocks" or "Trump complete victory concept stocks" are? In addition, as the US election activities heat up, the issue of tariffs may also become a key risk for US stocks at any time. Worried about retaliatory tariffs exacerbating geopolitical tensions A report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that if tariffs are imposed on US companies' overseas businesses, stocks with high incomes in the international market may face resistance. On the one hand, it may come from the retaliatory tariffs that may be triggered, affecting US exports and increasing the trade deficit, thereby having a negative impact on the US dollar; on the other hand, it may exacerbate geopolitical tensions and affect investor confidence and market performance. In addition, companies that rely on international suppliers may also face difficulties because they have to pay higher tariffs when importing raw materials or products into the United States, which naturally increases costs and may eventually be passed on to consumers, resulting in a decline in demand; at the same time, some companies may choose to absorb part of the costs, resulting in reduced profits. Goldman Sachs also mentioned that there is great uncertainty about the scale and scope of the current tariff increase, but if Trump wins, it seems very likely that tariffs will be increased. Therefore, the US presidential election will have a relatively significant impact on companies facing the domestic or international markets. In fact, when the United States announced tariffs and other trade barriers against China under Trump in 2018, domestic sales performed 9 percentage points higher than international sales. Biden's re-election is expected to promote electrification policies Another major bank, UBS, listed "Biden's re-election concept stocks" and "Trump's complete victory concept stocks", among which Biden's re-election beneficiary stocks include electrical components and power grid companies based on electrification policies, such as Eaton (ETN) and Quanta Services (PWR); clean hydrogen production facility companies such as Air Products & Chemicals (APD); energy efficiency product manufacturers such as Johnson Controls (JCI) and Ingersoll Rand (IR). In addition, it also includes waste management companies that benefit from renewable infrastructure and natural gas investment projects, such as Republic Waste Management (RSG) and Waste Management of America (WM); and solar energy, electric vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers Tesla (TSLA), First Solar (FSLR), NextEra Energy (NEE) and Sunrun (RUN) are also expected to benefit. Trump is expected to relax capital flows on Wall Street "Trump's victory concept stocks" include banks and consumer finance companies that benefit from the relaxation of Wall Street's capital liquidity rules, such as JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), KeyCorp (KEY), Synchrony Financial (SYF) and Discovery Financial (DFS); and financial institutions that benefit from reduced merger review activities, such as Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Evercore (EVR) and Lazard (LAZ). In addition, it also includes natural gas producers that benefit from deregulation, such as Cheniere Energy (LNG), ExxonMobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP); insurance companies that provide broader health insurance coverage, such as UnitedHealth (UNH) and Humana (HUM); and pharmaceutical companies that face reduced risks of "collective procurement price reduction", such as Eli Lilly (LLY) and Merck (MRK). As for semiconductor manufacturers, automakers and steel manufacturers that are expected to benefit from Trump's trade protection policies, they include Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Applied Materials (AMAT), KLAC, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD). Trump Media is a non-policy beneficiary stock It is worth noting that since UBS pointed out that the above stock selection logic is entirely based on policy considerations, Trump Media (DJT), which has always been regarded as the most important Trump concept stock, and similar shares are not included in the list. In fact, in addition to Trump Media, Phunware (PHUN), a big data analysis company known as "Cambridge Analytica 2.0", and AI solutions company Remark Holdings (MARK) have also been hyped in the past due to news about Trump.