The first debate of the US presidential election will be held at 9 pm Eastern Time on Thursday (27th). In addition to being seen as an opportunity for candidates to reverse the election situation, Wal... View MoreThe first debate of the US presidential election will be held at 9 pm Eastern Time on Thursday (27th). In addition to being seen as an opportunity for candidates to reverse the election situation, Wall Street analysts have also begun to think about what "Biden re-election concept stocks" or "Trump complete victory concept stocks" are? In addition, as the US election activities heat up, the issue of tariffs may also become a key risk for US stocks at any time.
Worried about retaliatory tariffs exacerbating geopolitical tensions
A report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that if tariffs are imposed on US companies' overseas businesses, stocks with high incomes in the international market may face resistance. On the one hand, it may come from the retaliatory tariffs that may be triggered, affecting US exports and increasing the trade deficit, thereby having a negative impact on the US dollar; on the other hand, it may exacerbate geopolitical tensions and affect investor confidence and market performance.
In addition, companies that rely on international suppliers may also face difficulties because they have to pay higher tariffs when importing raw materials or products into the United States, which naturally increases costs and may eventually be passed on to consumers, resulting in a decline in demand; at the same time, some companies may choose to absorb part of the costs, resulting in reduced profits.
Goldman Sachs also mentioned that there is great uncertainty about the scale and scope of the current tariff increase, but if Trump wins, it seems very likely that tariffs will be increased. Therefore, the US presidential election will have a relatively significant impact on companies facing the domestic or international markets. In fact, when the United States announced tariffs and other trade barriers against China under Trump in 2018, domestic sales performed 9 percentage points higher than international sales.
Biden's re-election is expected to promote electrification policies
Another major bank, UBS, listed "Biden's re-election concept stocks" and "Trump's complete victory concept stocks", among which Biden's re-election beneficiary stocks include electrical components and power grid companies based on electrification policies, such as Eaton (ETN) and Quanta Services (PWR); clean hydrogen production facility companies such as Air Products & Chemicals (APD); energy efficiency product manufacturers such as Johnson Controls (JCI) and Ingersoll Rand (IR).
In addition, it also includes waste management companies that benefit from renewable infrastructure and natural gas investment projects, such as Republic Waste Management (RSG) and Waste Management of America (WM); and solar energy, electric vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers Tesla (TSLA), First Solar (FSLR), NextEra Energy (NEE) and Sunrun (RUN) are also expected to benefit.
Trump is expected to relax capital flows on Wall Street
"Trump's victory concept stocks" include banks and consumer finance companies that benefit from the relaxation of Wall Street's capital liquidity rules, such as JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), KeyCorp (KEY), Synchrony Financial (SYF) and Discovery Financial (DFS); and financial institutions that benefit from reduced merger review activities, such as Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Evercore (EVR) and Lazard (LAZ).
In addition, it also includes natural gas producers that benefit from deregulation, such as Cheniere Energy (LNG), ExxonMobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP); insurance companies that provide broader health insurance coverage, such as UnitedHealth (UNH) and Humana (HUM); and pharmaceutical companies that face reduced risks of "collective procurement price reduction", such as Eli Lilly (LLY) and Merck (MRK).
As for semiconductor manufacturers, automakers and steel manufacturers that are expected to benefit from Trump's trade protection policies, they include Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Applied Materials (AMAT), KLAC, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).
Trump Media is a non-policy beneficiary stock
It is worth noting that since UBS pointed out that the above stock selection logic is entirely based on policy considerations, Trump Media (DJT), which has always been regarded as the most important Trump concept stock, and similar shares are not included in the list.
In fact, in addition to Trump Media, Phunware (PHUN), a big data analysis company known as "Cambridge Analytica 2.0", and AI solutions company Remark Holdings (MARK) have also been hyped in the past due to news about Trump.
With only four days to go before the first presidential debate, former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich reminded former Trump not to get angry when debating with Biden, but to respond with humor... View MoreWith only four days to go before the first presidential debate, former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich reminded former Trump not to get angry when debating with Biden, but to respond with humorous remarks instead. He also said that Biden has three major weaknesses and may not be re-elected.
In an interview, Gingrich described Biden as pitiful and dishonest. Trump does not need to take his attacks seriously, but can stay calm and fight back with humor. Gingrich gave an example, saying that Biden once claimed that he had known Russian President Putin for more than 40 years, but Putin was stationed in East Germany as a former Soviet intelligence officer in the 1980s and would not have contact with Biden at all. Trump could use this to mock Biden.
Gingrich also said that Biden once described his uncle Ambrose Finnegan as being eaten by local cannibals after his death in Papua New Guinea during World War II, but this remark was refuted by the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea. Coupled with the scandal of Biden's son Hunter Biden, all kinds of controversies can be used as topics for Trump.
During the interview, Gingrich also mentioned Biden's three major weaknesses, namely policy failure, values that deviate from the mainstream, and old age that makes him incapable of being president. In terms of policy, the rising prices of all goods affect people's livelihood, and the continuous influx of undocumented immigrants also "rape and kill" local people. The responsibility lies with the current government; in terms of values, there are transgender students in elementary schools and athletes born male who can compete with women on the same field, which shows that the awakening culture of the left subverts society; in addition, when Biden recently went to Italy to attend the G7 summit, he walked away for no reason during the event, gave a thumbs up to the people on the scene, and then the Italian Prime Minister took him back to his original position for a photo.
Gingrich described that for the new generation of voters, Biden is not like their grandfather, but more like an old great-grandfather. The first debate will be held in Atlanta on the 27th, hosted by CNN.
Trump said that he has already decided on a candidate for the vice president, who will also appear at the first presidential debate on the 27th.
Trump was interviewed during a campaign event in Phila... View MoreTrump said that he has already decided on a candidate for the vice president, who will also appear at the first presidential debate on the 27th.
Trump was interviewed during a campaign event in Philadelphia on the 22nd. When asked by reporters whether he had decided on a candidate for the vice president, Trump replied, "In my mind, yes," and said that this person "is likely" to go to Atlanta together on the 27th to attend the first presidential debate between him and Biden. But Trump also said that no one outside knows his choice for the time being, and he believes that the decision will be announced before the Republican National Convention.
The Republican Party will hold a convention between July 15 and 18, when it will formally nominate Trump to run for president. As for the vice presidential candidate, it is reported that North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Republican Senator J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio are the three most popular candidates. Another source revealed that Burgum and Vance are most likely to win. Although Rubio is also under consideration, he and Trump are both from Florida, and one of them needs to register an out-of-state address, so the procedure adds variables.
Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump camp, said that the most important criterion for the team to select the vice presidential nominee is that the person must have leadership ability and be able to run again as a presidential nominee after completing a four-year vice presidential term to continue the Republican Party's ruling time.
In preparation for the first presidential debate on the 27th, it is reported that Trump has held several informal policy meetings with his staff, and popular potential vice presidential candidates have also participated. Vance has participated in meetings on economic and inflation issues. In addition, when Trump visited the capital Washington earlier this month, he also discussed running for office with Rubio.
This year's Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Previous reports revealed that Trump once described Milwaukee as a "terrible" city, but the camp later clarified that the local situation was poor because of the poor management of the Democratic Party.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a speech in New York on the 13th local time that in order to improve competitiveness and promote economic growth, the United States must address long-stand... View MoreU.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a speech in New York on the 13th local time that in order to improve competitiveness and promote economic growth, the United States must address long-standing structural challenges.
On the same day, Yellen attended an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York and said that for decades, the U.S. economic growth rate has slowed down, income inequality is deeply rooted, deindustrialization is serious, and communities in many parts of the country have become hollowed out. The labor participation rate of people in the prime age without a college degree has declined. Too many American workers and American companies have failed to fully realize their potential.
Yellen said that the traditional supply-side economic model relies too much on tax cuts to stimulate investment and has failed to benefit enough workers. The United States must use modern supply-side economics to enhance three key areas, namely infrastructure, human capital and labor force participation, and research and development and strategic industry investment.
When talking about infrastructure construction, Yellen pointed out that analysis shows that for every 10% increase in the stock of physical infrastructure, economic productivity will increase by more than 2%. However, the proportion of U.S. infrastructure investment in gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen by more than 40% in the past 60 years or so, airports have become old, ports have been restricted, and high-speed Internet access is uneven. It is generally believed that these outdated infrastructures have hindered the development of the U.S. economy.
When it comes to labor factors, Yellen said that the United States faces major challenges. She said that over the past 20 years, the labor force participation rate in the United States, especially the male labor force participation rate, has been declining. It has become more difficult for people to get good jobs, especially for most Americans over the age of 25 who do not have a college degree. At the same time, companies say it is difficult to find suitable talents.
Speaking of R&D and strategic industrial investment, Yellen emphasized that the United States needs to enhance its competitiveness in cutting-edge industries such as semiconductors and clean energy. On this issue, she said that the United States' practice of improving the competitiveness of major domestic industries is often criticized as protectionism, and some people even believe that the United States is withdrawing from the global economic stage. In fact, the United States has no intention of withdrawing from the global market.
Yellen said that modern supply-side economics advocates that the government cooperate with the private sector to create a favorable environment for enterprises through public intervention and promote private sector investment. The relevant investment will focus on public infrastructure, education and labor training, and government-supported basic research. I believe this will not only benefit workers and families, but also companies and the economy.
In her speech, Yellen also mentioned that countries around the world are paying attention to the interaction between the United States and China. She said that China provides a huge market for American companies and supports more than 700,000 jobs in the United States. The United States is not worried about healthy economic competition and does not seek to "decouple" from China. She and US President Biden agree that "decoupling" from China will not bring any benefits to the US economy, and the two countries need to realize the potential benefits of economic relations in a fair competitive environment.
Biden and Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on Thursday, under which the United States will provide Ukraine with a series of military assistance and training o... View MoreBiden and Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on Thursday, under which the United States will provide Ukraine with a series of military assistance and training over the next 10 years. Biden stated that the goal of the agreement is to strengthen Ukraine's long-term and reliable defense and deterrence capabilities, and to send a clear signal to Russian President Putin that the United States and its allies have not weakened their support for Kiev and do not expect them to withdraw. Zelensky described this as a historic day in the fight against Russia, and the agreement will be a bridge for Ukraine to become a member of NATO.
Zelensky: A historic day in the fight against Russia
The 10-year agreement stipulates that the two sides will work together to establish and maintain Ukraine's reliable defense and deterrence capabilities, strengthen Ukraine's ability to maintain combat for a long time, and achieve a just peace based on respect for Ukraine's rights under international law; and Ukraine's lasting peace must rely on Ukraine itself to resist future aggression.
If Russia attacks the United States and Ukraine in the future, the highest-level consultations will be held within 24 hours
The agreement also states that if Russia launches any attack in the future, the two sides must hold the highest-level consultations within 24 hours. The agreement will accelerate Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration, including through Ukraine's reform of its democratic, economic and security institutions in line with its goal of joining the European Union and NATO's reform plan.
Biden reiterated that the United States will not send troops to Ukraine and does not intend to allow Ukraine to use American weapons to strike targets deeper into Russian territory, but will continue to provide weapons, ammunition, intelligence, military training and investment support for Ukrainian defense enterprises.
Zelensky thanked the United States for its support and believed that the agreement was a bridge for Ukraine to integrate into NATO. He said that winning the Russian-Ukrainian war depends on how long the unity of the allies can be maintained.
But according to U.S. officials familiar with the details of the agreement, the agreement points the way for the United States and Kiev's long-term security relationship, but it may also be canceled by future U.S. governments.
Not necessarily binding on future presidents
The commitment is expected to be an executive agreement, not as formal as a treaty, and not necessarily binding on any future president.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump did not make it clear whether he would continue to support Ukraine if he won the November election? He only said that he would quickly end the Russian-Ukrainian war through negotiations, but did not explain how to proceed.
Joe Biden, a Democrat who has long announced his reelection bid, is often attacked by the Republican camp for domestic and foreign affairs, and family affairs are also a major concern in his political... View MoreJoe Biden, a Democrat who has long announced his reelection bid, is often attacked by the Republican camp for domestic and foreign affairs, and family affairs are also a major concern in his political arena. Biden's second son was convicted of three charges for buying a gun during his drug addiction in 2018, and the heaviest sentence could be 25 years in prison. , former President Donald Trump, who is about to fight Biden again, leads Biden by 2 percentage points, but neither of them has more than half of the support.
There are still about 5 months before the 2024 presidential election voting day on November 5, and many American voters are still waiting and watching. The latest two-day poll conducted by Reuters in cooperation with the polling company Ipsos ended on Tuesday (11th), and the poll results were announced on Thursday. If voting now, 41% of registered voters choose to vote for Trump, 39% will support Biden, and 20% said they have not yet decided who to vote for, tend to support candidates nominated by third forces, or even will not vote. Trump's lead is within the 3% error range of the poll.
Biden, 81, has 41% support, while Trump, 77, has 39%, with Biden leading slightly. The latest poll shows that if the independent candidate, 70-year-old Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is taken into consideration, 10% of the voters surveyed will vote for Kennedy, and his support rate has not changed compared with the previous time.
Biden and Trump each have their own headaches on the judicial topic in this election campaign. Biden's 54-year-old second son Hunter Biden bought a gun while addicted to drugs in October 2018. He was charged with lying to the clerk, making false statements when applying to the government to buy guns, and possessing illegally obtained guns. On the 11th of this month, the jury of the Wilmington Court in Delaware found all three charges to be true, and the maximum sentence may be 25 years in prison and a fine of $750,000. Hunter Biden is a first-time offender, and the criminal responsibility may not be considered heavier. Biden has thus become the first president in American history to have his children convicted during his term.
Trump was convicted of all 34 counts of commercial fraud in the hush money case involving porn stars, becoming the first president in U.S. history to be convicted of a felony. He paid a considerable sum to Stormy Daniels, an adult film actress who had an affair with him earlier, before the 2016 presidential election in exchange for her silence about their sexual relationship during the election. The recent trial of this case has attracted national attention, and Daniels' testimony in court has stolen the limelight. Last month, a jury in Manhattan Court in New York found Trump guilty of all charges in this case, and the verdict is expected to be announced in July. Trump has three more criminal cases to be resolved, all related to his defeat in the 2020 election and improper handling of sensitive documents after leaving office in 2021.
The latest poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos this week sent out online questionnaires to 930 registered voters, but 80% of the respondents said that Hunter Biden's guilty verdict in the aforementioned case would not affect their voting intentions, while 61% said that their voting intentions would not change because of Trump's conviction in the hush money case.
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