photo #8528959

Since 2007, sea ice has fluctuated but has remained at a relatively stable, reduced level, dominated by the annual formation of first-year ice with very little multiyear ice surviving A regime shift occurred in 2007: prior to that (1979–2006), Arctic September sea ice extent declined approximately linearly; beginning in 2007, that decline stalled, showing no overall trend through to 2024 The largest year-over-year drop in the entire 1979–2024 satellite record happened between September 2006 and 2007 This study suggests a persistent shift in the Arctic sea ice system: after decades of steady loss, the September minimum stabilized around a lower baseline starting in 2007. In other words, the system entered a new regime—less multiyear ice, predominantly first-year ice, and greater interannual variability. That doesn’t mean the long-term trend of decline is over—but rather that natural variability, combined with a depleted multiyear ice store, has resulted in this new state. If warming continues, future declines will likely resume. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2024GL114546