photo #726120

Mortality comparison from CDC data 2018 vs 2020 - identifying covid-19 impact CDC reports all deaths for 2018 at 2,839,205 and 2019 at 2,852,609 (very similar rates). As of the 40th week of the year, 2020 deaths are 2,427,881. For the same week in 2019, deaths were 2,181,412, Assuming the current 10 week running average holds, 2020 will see "All Deaths" at around 3,091,133.2014-2018 mortality set https://data.cdc.gov/.../Weekly-Counts-of.../3yf8-kanr/data 2019-2020 mortality set https://data.cdc.gov/.../Weekly-Counts-of.../muzy-jte6/data I entered United Statesin the search box and placed the 2 links in 2 tabs on my browser side by side and shorted by mortality all causes - descending. Worst weeks for those 2 years were 1-4 in 2018 vs 14-17 in 2020. 1st worst week (04/11/2020) with (73398) mortality vs week 01/13/2018 with (67664) mortality. 2nd worst week (04/18/2020) with (69516) mortality vs week 01/06/2018 with (66317) mortality 3rd worst week (04/04/2020) with (67820) mortality vs week 01/20/2018 with (64820) mortality. 4th worst week (04/25/2020) with (63158) mortality vs week 01/27/2018 with (62944) mortality. You can see for yourself we have ~5% max extra deaths for a duration of 3 weeks 2020 vs 2018. --------- 1st week (01/04/2020) with (59813) mortality vs week 01/06/2018 with (66317) mortality. 2nd week (01/11/2020) with (60124) mortality vs week 01/13/2018 with (67644) mortality 3rd worst week (01/18/2020) with (58597) mortality vs week 01/20/2018 with (64820) mortality. 4th worst week (01/25/2020) with (58026) mortality vs week 01/27/2018 with (62944) mortality. However. if I compare the worst weeks of 2018 vs 2020 (weeks 1-4 in other words) the difference percentage-wise is 11% worse in 2018. So for the first 4 weeks in 2018 mortality was 11% worse than in 2020 and in 2020 mortality was worse by 5% in weeks 14-17. Which means at the end year you may see the same mortality more or less. I did not compare differences in economy. Maybe CDC can do that, with their advanced scientific models.