Julie Winslet
on June 4, 2024
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A recent report from S&P Global Mobility found that the average age of cars and light trucks in the U.S. has risen to a record 12.6 years in 2024, two months more than in 2023.
The trend of increasing age of cars has not affected new car sales, and analysts believe that this provides business opportunities for the aftermarket and automotive service industry. Todd Campau, head of S&P Global Mobility's aftermarket business, said in a statement after the report: "As the average age of vehicles increases, more and more vehicles are entering the best period for after-sales service, which is usually 6 to 14 years. Currently, there are more than 110 million vehicles in this best period, accounting for nearly 38% of cars on the road. We expect the number of vehicles in this period to continue to grow by 2028, and is expected to reach 40%."
At the beginning of this year, the scrap rate (a measure of vehicles leaving the active market) continued to remain stable at 4.6%, up only 1/10 percentage point from January 2023.
Since 2020, S&P Global Mobility found that more than 27 million passenger cars have been withdrawn from the market, while just over 13 million new passenger cars have been registered. At the same time, more than 26 million light trucks (including utility vehicles) have been scrapped, and nearly 45 million are registered. "Consumers continue to show a preference for utility vehicles, and manufacturers have adjusted their portfolios accordingly. This will continue to reshape the composition of vehicles in operation in the market," Campo said.
The number of vehicles still in operation surged to 286 million in January, 2 million more than in 2023, but the distribution of vehicles by age is changing. In 2019, vehicles under 6 years old accounted for 98 million, about 35% of the total. According to S&P Global Mobility estimates, there are less than 90 million vehicles under 6 years old today. Analysts believe that this is caused by the new crown epidemic and subsequent supply chain shortages, which disrupted the record high vehicle supply and registration from 2015 to 2019. In the next five years, vehicles between six and 14 years old are expected to account for 70% or more of the total.
As for electric vehicles, their operation increased to 3.2 million at the beginning of this year, an increase of about 52% compared with 2022. Campo said that while the growth of electric vehicles is slower than some automakers expected, the average age of electric vehicles is likely to rise in the short term. The average age of electric vehicles in the United States is 3.5 years, which has remained basically stable since 2019. "We expect the share of electric vehicles in operation to grow significantly over the next decade," Campo said.
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