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ACUS11 KWNS 252048SWOMCDSPC MCD 252047OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-252315-Mesoscale Discussion 0514NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0347 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024Areas affected...southwest Kansas into the central Texas PanhandleConcerning...Severe potential...Watch possibleValid 252047Z - 252315ZProbability of Watch Issuance...40 percentSUMMARY...A narrow zone of isolated storm potential exists fromsouthwest Kansas into the central Texas Panhandle, with conditionalsupercell threat.DISCUSSION...Clouds hampered heating for much of the day from theSouth Plains into most of the TX Panhandle, but boundary layermixing continues with decreasing clouds. High-based cumulus haveformed within the warmer, deeply mixed air mass just west of thedryline, with signs of increasing warm sector cumulus as well.Special midday soundings from AMA and DDC show steep lapse ratesaloft and strong mid and high level winds. While dewpoints havedropped in some areas such as western KS, GPS water vapor sensorsindicate greater overall moisture content roughly from AMAsoutheastward toward CDS.Given continued cloud erosion, mixing along the dryline, and anincreasing low-level jet into the evening, isolated severe stormscannot be ruled out within this narrow north-south zone...Jewell/Hart.. 04/25/2024...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...LAT...LON 33910188 34670189 35470209 35970215 36730202 3748016838410150 38450086 37940070 36300094 34960091 3416009633810139 33910188FXUS21 KWNC 251807PMDTHRUS Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD300 PM EDT April 25 2024SYNOPSIS: Early in week-2, heavy precipitation remains a concern across thecentral contiguous U.S. (CONUS) with mid-level low pressure forecast across theWest and mid-level high pressure likely across the eastern CONUS. This willallow for a continued active pattern leading to chances for heavy rain andthunderstorms across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. However, the strongestchances have diminished slightly today and dynamical model tools showconsiderable uncertainty. Heavy rain is also expected in week-1, and additionalprecipitation in week-2 could cause localized flooding over portions of thePlains, Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes. Associated with mid-levellow pressure over the West, chances for periodic high winds are possible formuch of week-2 over much of the southwestern CONUS, Rockies, and Plains. By themiddle of the period the longwave height pattern may break down as more zonalflow is forecast, reducing risks for hazardous weather. Rapid onset drought maybecome a concern in parts of the Florida peninsula over the next few weeks.HAZARDSSlight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Northern Rockies,Plains, Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes, Fri-Sun, May 3-5.Slight risk of high winds for much of the Southwest, Rockies, and Great Plains,Fri-Sun, May 3-5.Flooding possible for parts of the eastern Central and Southern Plains,Mississippi Valley, and parts of southwestern Great Lakes.Rapid Onset Drought risk for portions of central Florida.DETAILED SUMMARYFOR SUNDAY APRIL 28 - THURSDAY MAY 02:https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.phpFOR FRIDAY MAY 03 - THURSDAY MAY 09: The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means are ingood agreement indicating a fairly stagnant pattern heading into early week-2,featuring a moderately-amplified mean 500-hPa long-wave trough over or nearwestern North America, and a downstream mid-level ridge with an axis over theeastern CONUS. The western trough looks likely to weaken and diminish by themiddle of the week-2 period with more zonal flow pattern taking hold across theCONUS for a period of time. However, a trough across Alaska may help toreestablish negative anomalies across the eastern Pacific Ocean at the end ofthe period.The persistent mid-level trough in the West favors southerly surface flowbringing unusually moist air northward into the central CONUS, wherecyclonically-curved divergent flow aloft is expected. This combination puts alarge part of the central CONUS at increased risk for one or more episodes ofheavy precipitation and localized thunderstorms. This quasi-stationary patternis expected to persist through the early part of week-2 before weakening laterin the period, prompting a slight risk of heavy precipitation in place throughthe early part of the period, May 3-5. Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) fromthe GEFS and the ECENS are in less agreement relative to yesterday. The GEFShas lower precipitation amounts relative to the ECENS and this increases theuncertainty. Raw tools from the GEFS and ECENS are also in more disagreementwith the ECENS remaining slightly more robust in its probabilities but the GEFShas further reduced probabilities. Therefore, the moderate risk of heavyprecipitation has been discontinued today.The heavy precipitation and thunderstorm activity anticipated during week-2 isnot expected to be as intense as conditions in the short-term, but willexacerbate impacts related to excessive precipitation in week-1. The combinedeffects of two weeks of excessive precipitation support a flooding possiblerisk near and downstream from areas where the greatest rainfall totals areexpected including eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma and much of theMississippi Valley according to the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means. Runoff fromheavy rainfall is expected to enhance the flood risk farther to the south andeast (downstream) across the Lower Mississippi Vall