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000WTPZ31 KNHC 042036TCPEP1BULLETINTropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO......FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OFTHE BASIN LATER THIS WEEK...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...12.5N 104.2WABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-Ewas located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 104.2 West. Thedepression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). Agenerally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next severaldays. The depression is forecast to stay well south and west ofMexico.Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.Strengthening is likely. A relatively slow rate of intensificationis expected for the next day or so, followed by rapid strengtheningbeginning by the middle of the week.The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------NoneNEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.$$Forecaster D. ZelinskyZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040856 SPC AC 040856 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level low and an associated trough are forecast to move slowly eastward across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley from Thursday to Saturday. An associated cold front is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians, and southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Moderate instability is expected to develop each afternoon ahead of the front, where scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear appear to be sufficient for an isolated severe threat in some areas ahead of the front. The greatest potential for an isolated severe threat would be in the Gulf Coast states on Thursday, in the Carolinas on Friday, and along the middle Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. A 15 percent contour could be needed on Thursday in parts of the Southeast, once certainty increases concerning important factors such as instability, deep-layer shear and cell coverage. Further west into parts of the central Rockies and northern High Plains, an upper-level ridge is forecast to develop. Low-level moisture will likely return northward into parts of the Great Plains, where isolated strong thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon. An isolated severe thre