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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 PM EDT Mon Sep 04 2023Valid 00Z Tue Sep 05 2023 - 00Z Thu Sep 07 2023...Much above average, near record-tying/breaking heat continues for much of the central/eastern U.S. following the holiday weekend......Heavy rain and some severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday for the Upper Midwest as a cold front ushers in relief from the heat......More seasonable, tranquil conditions for the West after a cool and wet weekend...Upper-level ridging will remain in place over much of the central/eastern U.S. heading into the work week, continuing the much above average and in some cases record-tying/breaking heat seen over the weekend. Starting in the Northeast, highs will range between the mid- to upper 80s in New England, the low to mid-90s in the northern Mid-Atlantic, and the upper 90s for the southern Mid-Atlantic. Many near record-tying/breaking temperatures are forecast. Texas and the Southern Plains will continue to be plagued by the heat as well, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with many locations remaining in the 70s overnight, providing little relief from the heat.One more day of hot temperatures is expected Tuesday for the Upper Midwest, where record-breaking temperatures were seen over the weekend, as well as the Great Lakes southwest into the Central Plains, with highs into the low to mid-90s. However, relief is on the way, with an upper-level wave approaching from the west helping to drive a strong cold front eastward across the region. The cold front will push through the Northern Plains on Tuesday with highs falling into the 60s. Highs will drop into the 60s for the Upper Midwest and the 70s/80s for the Great Lakes into the Central Plains Wednesday. The cold front will also bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms for the Upper Midwest south to the Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Great Lakes south to the Ohio Valley Wednesday. Some of these storms may be severe on Tuesday for the Upper Midwest, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for the threat of some large hail and damaging winds. One spot that will be more seasonable, at least temperatures wise, will be from the Lower Mississippi Valley east into the Southeast and Florida, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak upper-level disturbance will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-South Tuesday with additional storms expected ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, with some locally heavy rainfall possible.In the West, some locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns will remain through the rest of Monday evening for portions of the Northern Rockies/adjacent High Plains with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place. However, following the departure of the upper-level wave to the east, conditions will remain relatively dry across the region with temperatures moderating following a cool weekend. Highs Tuesday will generally be in the 70s for the Pacific Northwest, coastal California, Great Basin, and Rockies; the 80s for the central California valleys; and the 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb around 5-10 degrees warmer on Wednesday to near average levels. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.phphttps://zoom.earth/storms/gert-2023/#overlays=radar,windPost-Tropical Cyclone Katia LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth https://zoom.earth/storms/katia-2023/#overlays=radar,windInvest 95L LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth https://zoom.earth/storms/95l-2023/#overlays=radar,windAXNT20 KNHC 050006TWDATTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0005 UTC Tue Sep 05 2023Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through2345 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Tropical Depression Katia became post-tropical cyclone at 2100UTC near 28.0N 34.4W, or about 910 nm NW of the Cabo VerdeIslands moving NW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are to its north from 28Nto 30N between 31W-36W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are from27N to 31N between 35W-36W along with seas of 10-12 ft. Pleaseread the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the NationalHurricane Center at website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the last KatiaNHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory atwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.Invest AL95: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along35W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the tropical wave near12N. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate toisolated strong convection within 180 nm either side of thewave and low from 12N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection iswithin 120 nm west of the wave from 08N12N. This activity haschanged little in organization through the day. Strong to neargale- force winds and seas of 8 ft are from 12N to 13N between35W-37W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducivefor further development, and a tropical depression or tropicalstorm is expected to form over the next day or so while the lowmoves toward the west-northwest across the central tropicalAtlantic. Additional strengthening, possibly to a hurricane islikely later this week while the system moves over westernportions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast ofthe northern Leeward Islands. Please refer to the latest NHCTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details....TROPICAL WAVES...A strong tropical wave that is over western Africa is forecastto move off the African coast in a couple of days. Theenvironmental conditions should support some slow development,and is is possible that a tropical depression may form in thethe far eastern tropical Atlantic around the latter part of theweek or the weekend while the wave moves to the west-northwest.A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along76W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolatedshowers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the wavefrom 10N to 13N.The Caribbean Sea tropical wave that previously had its axisalong 86W/87W and south of 19N has moved inland Central America.Please refer to the eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical WeatherDiscussion for the latest details on this wave....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plainsof Senegal near 14N17W through the INVEST AL95 low pressurecenterand 10N39W. The ITCZ continues from 10N39W to 09N44W to07N53W. Numerous strong convection is between 14W-18W....GULF OF MEXICO...A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from the westerntip of Cuba curving northwestward to 25N87W and to just southNew Orleans, Louisiana. ASCAT data shows gentle to moderateeast to southeast winds are east of the dissipating front, whilemoderate or lighter southeast winds are west of the front.Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving westward areover the central Gulf waters from 22N to 25N between 90-92W.Isolated showers are elsewhere west of the dissipating front tonear 94W.Elsewhere, generally weak high pressure is present. A 1016 mbhigh pressure center is in interior Mexico near 19N97W anda 1014 mb high pressure center is near 21N101W.Seas throughout are in the range of 2-4 ft.