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Invest 99LLast Modified: 2022-12-06 00:00 UTCInvest 99L99LInvest 99L has a medium chance (40%) of formation in the next 2 days, and a medium chance (50%) in the next 5 days.Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the next few days.By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential of tropical transition after that time. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).AXPZ20 KNHC 052200TWDEPTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL2205 UTC Mon Dec 05 2022Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through2145 UTC....INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...The monsoon trough axis extends from the far southwesternCaribbean Sea to 08N79W to 07N90W to 07N100W and to 07N105W,where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions tothe ITCZ to 10N116W to 10N125W to 07N133W and to beyond the areaat 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm southof the trough between 79W-81W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ between124W-130W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 113W-115W.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Earlier during the morning an ASCAT data pass depicted strong tonear gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Since then,winds there have diminished slightly, to mainly strong speeds.The earlier 8-11 ft seas with these winds are gradually lowering.An altimeter data pass downstream of the Gulf reveals peakseas of 9 ft. Seas to 8 ft have propagated well to the southwestof the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to near 11N100W. A large swathof fresh to strong northeast that surrounds the strong to neargale-force extends as far west as 101W. Light to gentle variablewinds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja Californiaunder the influence of high pressure ridging, with seas of 4-6ft due to long-period northwest swell. Seas are currentlypeaking to 8 ft near 30N120W. Across the remainder of theMexican offshore waters outside of the Tehuantepec region, lightto gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft primarily to due a long-period northwest are noted. Gentle to moderate northwest windsare in the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas of2-4 ft. Mainly light and variable winds with seas less than 2 ftdominate the northern part of the Gulf.For the forecast, a cold front that extends from southern BajaCalifornia to over northern Baja California will weaken as itadvances east-southeastward toward the far northern Gulf ofCalifornia and northwestern Mexico through tonight and dissipateearly Tue morning. Seas of 6-9 ft in the wake of the front willsubside tonight into Tue. Expect fresh to locally strongnorthwest to north winds in the Gulf of California Wed nightinto Thu as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. Freshto strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf ofTehuantepec Wed through Fri night. Winds may reach to just belowgale-force early in Fri.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in theGulf of Papagayo region, downwind to near 88W per a morningASCAT data pass over that area. Peak seas with these winds areup to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east winds areelsewhere north of the monsoon trough along 07N, with seas of 5-7 ft. based on an altimeter pass. Light to gentle south tosouthwest winds along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a northerlyswell mixing with south swell are present to the south of themonsoon trough. Light to gentle south to southwest winds arepresent between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 3-4 ft.For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expectedin the Papagayo region mainly at night through Wed. Seas areforecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in themarine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds willprevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia,and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of theoffshore waters through late Wed, except in the Papagayo region.Northwest swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind eventwill continue to spread through the outer offshore waters ofGuatemala and El Salvador through earlt this evening whilesubsiding.REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A cold front extends from far southern California south-southwestward to 30N116W and to 28N120W, where it becomesstationary to 26N127W to 24N135W and to 22N140W. Gentle tomoderate northeast winds are behind the front, except forfresh northwest winds farther east near the Baja Californiapeninsula. Seas behind the front are 8 ft in a long-periodnorthwest to north swell. Elsewhere, high pressure controls thewind regime north of 16N and west of about 110W. The pressuregradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in thevicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of mainly fresh northeastto east trade winds from about 13N to 21N between 118W-128W andfrom 06N to 24N west of 128W. Seas within these areas of tradesare 8 ft in northwest swell, except 8-9 ft in north swell west of128W.An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection isobserved on GOES-W visible and IR imagery well to the southwestof the Gulf of California from 13N to 19N between 115W-120W. Thisactivity is being sustained by upper-level divergence occurringto the east of a broad upper mid to upper trough that is locatedto the west of the convection, with a base between 120W-130W andnorth of 20N. An afternoon ASCAT data pass suggests that thelocal gradient created by the convection has helped to make thefresh trade winds more pronounced from 14N to 18N and between119W-122W.For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front willweaken through tonight and dissipate early Tue. High pressurewill build across the area in the wake of the front. Theassociated gradient is expected to lead to moderate to freshtrade winds in the west-central waters. As the gradient tightensbetween strengthening of the high pressure and surface troughingthat develops over the central waters near 126W by late Tuenight, this is expected to increase the aforementioned freshnortheast trade winds to fresh to strong speeds at that time. The8-9 ft seas may reach 10 ft with these winds. These marineconditions are expected to persist beyond Thu. The surface troughis forecast to slowly move westward possibly reaching near 140Wover the upcoming weekend.$$AguirreABNT20 KNHC 060129TWOATSpecial Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL830 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential forsubtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.Central Subtropical Atlantic:A large and complex area of low pressure located over the centralsubtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northernLeeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganizedshowers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appearconducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropicalcharacteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during thenext few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over coolerwaters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potentialof tropical transition after that time. Additional information onthis system, including gale warnings, can be found in High SeasForecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next SpecialTropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM ESTTuesday, or earlier, if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Papin