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ACUS11 KWNS 281813SWOMCDSPC MCD 281813WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-282015-Mesoscale Discussion 1629NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0113 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021Areas affected...east-central Minnesota into northern WisconsinConcerning...Tornado Watch 468...Valid 281813Z - 282015ZThe severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to persist out of Minnesota andacross northern Wisconsin, with primarily damaging gust potential.DISCUSSION...A compact but long-lived MCS is now crossing the MSRiver, with extensive outflow boundary trailing southwestward. Thestrongest part of this MCS is traveling along a diffuse boundary.South of this boundary, temperatures continue to slowly rise to near80 F despite substantial cloud cover. Breaks in the clouds do existhowever, from near the Twin Cities into western WI.Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg ahead of theMCS, which should support a continues damaging wind threat. The 18ZMPX sounding shows the effects of cooler, stabilizing outflow airfrom convection over IA, and this will likely limit southward growthpotential with the ongoing MCS. Embedded areas of rotation cannot beruled out within the arcing line of convection, though effective SRHahead of the MCS is currently only averaging around 100 m2/s2...Jewell.. 08/28/2021...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...LAT...LON 46289283 46729165 46989074 46759032 46249000 4569899745369041 45199157 45189320 45259367 45639341 4586932946039332 46289283WOUS20 KWNS 281913WWASPCSPC WW-A 281915MNZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-282040-STATUS REPORT ON WW 468SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSP TO60 NNE MSP TO 50 SW DLH TO 25 SSW DLH TO 20 ENE DLH...JEWELL..08/28/21ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...&&STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREASWIC003-005-007-013-017-031-033-051-095-099-107-109-113-129-282040-WI. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED AREASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELDBURNETT CHIPPEWA DOUGLASDUNN IRON POLKPRICE RUSK ST. CROIXSAWYER WASHBURN$$LSZ121-145-146-147-148-150-282040-CW. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARECHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WIDULUTH MN TO PORT WING WIPORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WISAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WIOAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WIOUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS BEYOND 5 NM FROM MAINLAND$$THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.$$FXUS06 KWBC 281902PMDMRDPrognostic Discussions for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks.NWS Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD300 PM EDT Sat August 28 2021There is no forecaster message written on weekends.Notes:Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manualintervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. Inthese cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same asthat in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-belowThe temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical averagevalues for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on theshaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).Probability of N is always < 40%.The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median valuesfor the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on theshaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).Probability of N is always < 40%.In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be agreater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such casesa forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or noprecipitation.The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means fortemperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climateoutlooks.Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitudeinclude the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:20020831 - 19800830 - 19990904 - 20030911 - 19730808Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitudeinclude the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:20020830 - 19730808 - 20030910 - 20020809 - 198008316 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLEOutlook for Sep 03 - 07, 2021STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPNWASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N BSRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA A BW MONTANA N B E MONTANA N A WYOMING N AUTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A ANEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N ANEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A BN TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A BMINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A NARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N NILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N AINDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A NTENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B AVERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B AMASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N APENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A NMARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A NN CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A NFL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N AAK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A AAK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLEOutlook for Sep 05 - 11, 2021STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPNWASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A BSRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A BW MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A BUTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A BNEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B BNEBRASKA N B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A NN TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A NMINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N AARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B NILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N AINDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B ATENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B AVERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N AMASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N APENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N AMARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A AN CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A AFL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N NAK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A AAK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A ALEGENDTEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIANA - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A -NWUS20 KWNS 281755STADTSSPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTSUNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'FOR 06CST FRI AUG 27 2021 THRU 06CST SAT AUG 28 2021EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....1 *TORN 5 S CLEAR LAKE IA (6 SSW MCW) 27/1607TRAINED SPOTTER RELAYED REPORT TO EM OF BRIEF DMX/LSR 4307 9339TORNADO TOUCH DOWN WES2 *TORN 5 SSE CLEAR LAKE IA (5 S MCW) 27/1615TRAINED SPOTTER RELAYED REPORT TO COUNTY LAW DMX/LSR 4307 9334ENFORCEMENT OF BRIEF T3 *TORN 2 W MARBLE ROCK IA (24 ESE MCW) 27/1656ARX/LSR 4296 92914 *TORN 1 S MARBLE ROCK IA (27 ESE MCW) 27/1700DAMAGE IS EXTENSIVE SOUTH TO EAST-NORTHEAST OF ARX/LSR 4295 9287MARBLE ROCK.5 *TORN 4 SW CHARLES CITY IA (31 ESE MCW) 27/1709ARX/LSR 4303 92736 *TORN 2 SE MARBLE ROCK IA (28 ESE MCW) 27/1710LARGE ABOVE GROUND PROPANE TANKS WERE KNOCKED ARX/LSR 4294 9284OVER BY A TORNADO........LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS.............LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS......32 WNDG 4 NNE CROSS PLAINS WI (14 W MSN) 27/0835TREE SNAPPED OFF AT BASE. MKX/LSR 4317 896233 WNDG FOX LAKE WI (33 SSW OSH) 27/0940COMBINATION OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTSMKX/LSR 4357 8891TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH R34 WNDG 2 NE TOBYHANNA PA (19 ESE AVP) 27/1033DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND WIRES NEAR COUNTRY PLACE PHI/LSR 4120 7539DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED35 WNDG GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI (14 SSW MTC) 27/1130NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED DTX/LSR 4240 8289BY RADAR.36 WNDG 2 N TOBYHANNA TWP PA (15 SE AVP) 27/1136DOWNED WIRES NEAR MAPLE DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED PHI/LSR 4115 7554FROM RADAR.37 WNDG 1 NW TUNKHANNOCK TWP PA (23 SSE AVP) 27/1159DOWNED WIRES NEAR STATE ROUTE 115. TIME PHI/LSR 4103 7549ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.38 WNDG 1 NNE CALN TWP PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1204MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON OSBORNE ROAD. TIME PHI/LSR 4002 7575ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.39 WNDG 1 NNW CALN TWP PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1205SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN AROUND CALN PHI/LSR 4001 7576TOWNSHIP. TIME ESTIMAT40 WNDG 1 NW CALN TWP PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1210SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN BLOCKING TRAFFIC. PHI/LSR 4001 7576TIME ESTIMATED FROM RA41 WNDG 2 SW EAST BRANDYWINE TW PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1213MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HURLEY ROAD. TIME PHI/LSR 4001 7579ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.42 WNDG 1 ESE WAGONTOWN PA (25 NNW ILG) 27/1218SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE AREA OF PRATTS DAM PHI/LSR 4000 7582ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED F43 WNDG 2 SE EAST BRANDYWINE TW PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1220TREE AND POLE DOWN IN THE 900 BLOCK OF PHI/LSR 4002 7574HORSESHOE PIKE. TIME E44 WNDG 1 SE KRESGEVILLE PA (16 N ABE) 27/1226DOWNED TREE IN WIRES ON MOLASSES VALLEY ROAD. PHI/LSR 4089 7548TIME ESTIMATED FROM RA45 WNDG 1 N COATESVILLE PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1230TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 84 BETWEEN 30 BYPASS ANDPHI/LSR 3999 758330 BUSINESS JUST NORTH46 WNDG 1 NNE COATESVILLE PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1230MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT ROUTE 30 BYPASS AND PHI/LSR 4000 7581MOORE ROAD. TIME ESTIM47 WNDG 2 SSW GILBERT PA (15 N ABE) 27/1234DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND WIRES NEAR BLACKBERRY PHI/LSR 4088 7545LANE. TIME ESTIMATED F48 WNDG HOPE NJ (30 NE ABE) 27/1239DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR MOUNT HERMON ROAD. PHI/LSR 4091 7497TIME ESTIMATED FROM RA49 WNDG VALLEY TWP PA (24 NNW ILG) 27/1242DOWNED TREE ON RAINBOW ROAD NEAR WEST LINCOLN PHI/LSR 3998 7585HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATE163 G 54 4 NNW BELLEAIR FL (10 WNW PIE) 27/1248MESONET STATION FW1789 CLEARWATER BEACH. TBW/LSR 2799 828350 WNDG GREAT MEADOWS NJ (30 ENE ABE) 27/1250SMALL AREA OF LIMBS DOWN JUST WEST OF GREAT PHI/LSR 4087 7492MEADOWS ALONG US 46. T51 WNDG 1 WSW LIBERTY TWP NJ (28 ENE ABE) 27/1255DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR MOUNTAIN LAKE ROAD.PHI/LSR 4087 7497TIME ESTIMATED FROM RA52 WNDG 1 SSW GREAT MEADOWS NJ (30 ENE ABE) 27/1258DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR HUDSON LANE. TIME PHI/LSR 4086 7492ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.53 WNDG 1 SW GREAT MEADOWS NJ (30 ENE ABE) 27/1259AN MPING REPORT OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS. PHI/LSR 4086 749254 WNDG 1 ENE BERKELEY TWP NJ (8 SSE NEL) 27/1300DOWNED WIRES NEAR PINEWALD KESWICK ROAD. TIME PHI/LSR 3993 7428AXNT20 KNHC 281756TWDATTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1805 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through1745 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Hurricane Ida is near 24.8N 86.1W 984 mb at 28/1500 UTC EDTmoving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt.Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. The maximum seaheights are 30 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection isfound mainly from 24N-26N between 84W-87W. An outer band withnumerous moderate to strong Convection is also noted 100 nm E ofthe eye of the storm from 23N to 27N between 82W to 84W. On theforecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeasternGulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexicotonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfallalong the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warningarea on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisianaor western Mississippi later Monday. Rapid strengthening isforecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to bean extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches thenorthern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Idamakes landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory athttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml andForecast/Advisory athttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts athttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts.Tropical Depression Ten is near 14.8N 50.1W at 28/1500 UTC or 695nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimumcentral pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convectionis noted from 12N-18N between 45W-50W. On the forecast track, thedepression is moving toward the north and this general motion isforecast to continue during the next several days. Some slightstrengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected tobecome a tropical storm on Sunday. Please read the latest NHCPublic Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtmland Forecast/ Advisory athttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area oflow pressure located over the central Atlantic has become alittle better organized overnight. Environmental conditions areexpected to be only marginally conducive for further development.However, a tropical depression could still form within the nextcouple of days. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbedby a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drifteastward through today, then accelerate northeastward Sundaytoward the central north Atlantic. This system has a mediumchance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook atwww.hurricanes.gov for more details....TROPICAL WAVES...An Atlantic tropical wave has moved off the African coast along16W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate toisolated strong convection is seen from 11N-17N along the coastof Guinea-Bissau and Guinea E of 20W.An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 17N southward andmoving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in thevicinity of the wave axis.Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward andmoving W near 15 kt. This wave is in proximity of T.D. Tenmentioned in the Special Features section above. Scatteredmoderate convection is noted from 08N-16N between 53W-60W.A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward acrossHispaniola to N Venezuela, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt.Scattered showers are noted across t