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WTNT82 KNHC 142046TCVAT2GRACE WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021446 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021.TROPICAL STORM GRACECAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OFTROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEETHE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORTHE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THECOAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHESAND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGSCAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARDGRIDS.PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150500-/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/446 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2021$$ATTN...WFO...SJU...FONT12 KNHC 142043PWSAT2TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720212100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIMEEASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIMECENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIMEWIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONSCHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)......50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)......64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYSPROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHEREOP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURINGAN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENTX INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENTPROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROMTIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WEDPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THUFORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -LOCATION KTFT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15)MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17)KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12)SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15)GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18)GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29)PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24)CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19)PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X(WTNT42 KNHC 142043TCDAT2Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 6NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021Grace is a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon. TheNOAA Hurricane Hunters were unable to close off a circulation, atleast at their flight level of 5000 feet, but dropsonde observationsand reports from some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles suggestthat there's at least a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface.The various data also indicate that the center has sped up, orre-formed, and is located farther southwest than previouslyestimated. Based on the aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data, theinitial intensity is set at 35 kt.Both the future track and intensity of Grace have a high level ofuncertainty. For the track, the forecast is likely to becomplicated by the fact that the system doesn't currently have atight low-level circulation, and the center could always re-form atany time, especially with convection ongoing farther to the north.In addition, the storm has not yet slowed down, and in fact, theinitial motion is estimated to be toward the west (275 degrees) at23 kt. The guidance envelope has made a notable southward shift dueto the adjustment of the initial position, and the models insistthat Grace will primarily have a west-northwestward heading for muchof the forecast period with the speed gradually decreasing duringthe next 48 hours or so. The NHC track forecast has been shiftedsouthward accordingly, although any re-formations of the centercould cause this track to shift again in future advisory cycles.If Grace slows down as forecast--which is obviously not a surething--environmental conditions should be conducive to allow forsome strengthening before the system reaches the Greater Antilles.The southward adjustment in the official forecast now takes Graceover the Greater Antilles for a longer period of time, and theofficial intensity forecast is therefore lowered beyond 48 hours.This is a middle-of-the-road solution, and actually lower than mostof the intensity guidance. If the forecast track shifts north orsouth, the system could strengthen further over water.Alternatively, Grace could go the way of Fred and dissipate beforethe end of the 5-day period.In the end, the exact track of the center and the intensity of thesystem will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall thatis forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the GreaterAntilles during the next few days.Key Messages:1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of theLeeward Islands tonight, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico onSunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern partsof the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over theLeeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the DominicanRepublic, and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban andsmall stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest ofthe Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, theBahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertaintyremains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitorthe progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR DOMINICAN REP.60H 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR HAITI72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER CUBA96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER CUBA120H 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER$$Forecaster BergWTNT22 KNHC 142042TCMAT2TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720212100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...ANDMONTSERRAT* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS* SINT MAARTEN* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRAA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABOENGANO* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TOCABO ENGANOA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKSAND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULDMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGSCOULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100ZAT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 59.9WFORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3WMAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1WMAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5WMAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6WMAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8WMAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W...INLANDMAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NMON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLANDMAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W...OVER WATERMAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 60.7WINTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0000ZNEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z$$FORECASTER BERG