Chris Swafford
on August 14, 2021
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FOPZ12 KNHC 140845
PWSEP2
HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 115W 34 53 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 120W 34 1 43(44) 46(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 41(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 33(49) 1(50) X(50)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 7(36)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
WTPZ22 KNHC 132045
TCMEP2
HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.3W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.2N 114.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.9N 116.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.2N 119.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 112.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BRENNAN
WTNT81 KNHC 131509
TCVAT1
FRED WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1109 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED
CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.
FLZ076>078-132315-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1109 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021
$$
FLZ069-075-162-165-174-132315-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1109 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021
$$
ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000f65h/executive
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2021/08/14/21226002/3/WECA41/WECA41.txt
Dimension: 610 x 1280
File Size: 253.59 Kb
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