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AXPZ20 KNHC 151530TWDEPTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1605 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through1500 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.2N 118.6W at 15/1500 UTCmoving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within120 nm of the center. Seas to 12 ft extend as far as 120 nm Nsemicircle and 60 nm S semicircle. Felicia is expected togradually turn WSW into the weekend, then return to the westwardmotion early next week. Hurricane Felicia is forecast to continuestrengthening into Saturday, when it will reach around 125W.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory athttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml formore details.A tropical wave extends along 96W from 06N northward to the Gulfof Tehunatepec, moving W at 15 kt. A broad area of disorganized,scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from10N to 13N between 91W and 97W. Environmental conditions areexpected to be conducive for gradual development over the nextseveral days, and a tropical depression is likely to form thisweekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico whilethe system moves westward or west-northwestward. Based on thelatest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a medium chanceof tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chanceof tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Please refer tothe latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov fordetails....TROPICAL WAVES...Please see Special Features section above for details on atropical wave along 96W that has a high potential for tropicaldevelopment in the next 5 days.A tropical wave extends along 104W from 06N northward to theColiman coast of Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate toisolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 100Wand 107W....INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N78W to09N90W to 13N111W, then resumes west of Hurricane Felicia near13N121W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to thetropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderateconvection is noted from 07N to 10N between 90W and 102W, from08N to 10N between 112W and 115W, and from from 11N to 13Nbetween 132W and 140W.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds continue to flow across theGulf of Tehuantepec. As the tropical wave, described in theSpecial Features section above, moves W of the area later today,winds will begin to subside. Seas in this region are 8 to 10 ft.Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico,with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecastwaters of Baja California is maintaining light to gentle breezes,except for possible moderate NW winds funneling along the coastsouth of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft off Baja California ina mix of S and NW swell.For the forecast, low pressure is expected to develop justoutside the offshore waters off southern Mexico Fri, then move Wor W-NW toward the Revillagigedo Islands through Sun. This maybring strong SE winds and building seas to the offshore watersfrom Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into theRevillagigedo Islands Sat night through Sun night. Farther north,gentle to moderate winds will persist with slight to moderateseas.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, andWITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Fresh offshore wind