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FXUS21 KWNC 121857PMDTHRUS Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD300 PM EDT July 12 2021SYNOPSIS: There is strong model agreement in regards to mid-level high pressureexpanding across the western half of the lower 48 later in week-1 andpersisting into week-2. This feature is expected to bring yet another round ofexcessive heat to portions of the western and north-central lower 48, with thehighest positive temperature anomalies likely across the Northern Rockies andNorthern Plains. An active North American Monsoon circulation is forecast topromote above-normal precipitation and possible flooding over the DesertSouthwest. Downstream across the eastern U.S., frontal activity is predicted toslowly shift southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast,becoming a focus for increased chances for heavy rain across already saturatedareas.HAZARDSHigh risk of excessive heat for portions of the Northern Rockies and NorthernPlains, Tue-Wed, Jul 20-21.Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Great Basin, Northern andCentral Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley, Tue-Fri, Jul20-23.Slight risk of excessive heat for much of the western and north-central CONUS,Tue-Mon, Jul 20-26.Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Lower MississippiValley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and Southeast, Tue-Wed, Jul20-21.Slight risk of episodes of high winds across coastal portions of California,Tue-Thu, Jul 20-22.Possible flooding for portions of Missouri and Illinois.Possible flooding for portions of Arizona and New Mexico.DETAILED SUMMARYFOR THURSDAY JULY 15 - MONDAY JULY 19:https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.phpFOR TUESDAY JULY 20 - MONDAY JULY 26: The 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadianensembles depict amplified ridging returning across the western CONUS late inweek-1 with positive height anomalies building across the north-central CONUS.By day-8, the model ensemble means indicate 500-hPa heights of 595-596 dmcentered over the Four Corners region, with heights greater than 588 dmexpanding through south-central Canada. This pattern translates into increasedchances for excessive heat across portions of the western and north-centralCONUS. The greatest potential exists across portions of the Northern Rockiesand Northern Plains where the ECMWF reforecast tool depicts at least a 60%chance that maximum temperatures exceed the 85th climatological percentileearly in week-2. Triple digit temperatures are probable, especially over thelower elevation areas of eastern Montana. The GEFS reforecast tool is lessrobust compared to the ECMWF tool, but given the ongoing drought and seeminglyrelentless heat across the region and likely exacerbation of impacts, a highrisk for excessive heat is posted for the Northern Rockies and Plains on July20-21. A moderate risk continues through July 23, and is highlighted over abroad area including parts of the Great Basin, Northern and Central Rockies,Northern Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley where the reforecast toolsindicate some of these areas having at least a 40% chance maximum temperaturesexceed the 85th climatological percentile, which translates to actualtemperatures reaching the 90s deg F across the valleys of the Great Basin, andalso over eastern portions of the Northern Plains and into the UpperMississippi Valley. A slight risk for excessive heat continues for all ofweek-2 for much of the western and north-central CONUS with the slight riskchances shifting more east with time.The predicted placement of the mid-level height maximum across the Four CornersRegion is expected to promote enhanced monsoonal moisture flow across portionsof the Desert Southwest. Increased tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific isalso likely to contribute to enhanced moisture surges as well. Although actualprecipitation amounts in the model guidance are not supportive of a heavyprecipitation hazard due to lack of coherency in terms of timing and placement,the localizedWOUS20 KWNS 122339WWASPCSPC WW-A 122340DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-130040-STATUS REPORT ON WW 374SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BWITO 30 NW ILG TO 20 N PHL TO 20 N ACY TO 25 ESE ACY.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268..WENDT..07/12/21ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...CTP...&&STATUS REPORT FOR WS 374SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREASDEC003-130040-DE. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARENEW CASTLE$$MDC015-130040-MD. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECECIL$$NJC005-007-015-033-130040-NJ. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTERSALEM$$PAC029-045-130040-PA. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECHESTER DELAWARE$$ANZ430-130040-CW. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED AREDELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE$$THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.$$WFUS51 KBGM 122359TORBGMPAC015-130030-/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0005.210712T2359Z-210713T0030Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTornado WarningNational Weather Service Binghamton NY759 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a* Tornado Warning for...Central Bradford County in northeastern Pennsylvania...* Until 830 PM EDT.* At 759 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornadowas located over Burlington, or 8 miles northwest of Towanda,moving east at 20 mph.HAZARD...Tornado.SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught withoutshelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Treedamage is likely.* This dangerous storm will be near...Ulster around 815 PM EDT.Towanda and North Towanda around 820 PM EDT.Wysox around 825 PM EDT.Rome around 830 PM EDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowestfloor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in amobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelterand protect yourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4177 7667 4187 7668 4194 7633 4173 7626TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 263DEG 18KT 4182 7659TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$$AJGWFUS51 KBGM 122359TORBGMPAC015-130030-/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0005.210712T2359Z-210713T0030Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTornado WarningNational Weather Service Binghamton NY759 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a* Tornado Warning for...Central Bradford County in northeastern Pennsylvania...* Until 830 PM EDT.* At 759 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornadowas located over Burlington, or 8 miles northwest of Towanda,moving east at 20 mph.HAZARD...Tornado.SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught withoutshelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Treedamage is likely.* This dangerous storm will be near...Ulster around 815 PM EDT.Towanda and North Towanda around 820 PM EDT.Wysox around 825 PM EDT.Rome around 830 PM EDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowestfloor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in amobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelterand protect yourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4177 7667 4187 7668 4194 7633 4173 7626TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 263DEG 18KT 4182 7659TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$$AJGWWUS51 KBGM 122357SVSBGMSevere Weather StatementNational Weather Service Binghamton NY757 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021NYC025-PAC127-130015-/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210713T0015Z/Delaware NY-Wayne PA-757 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FORSOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...At 757 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornadowas located over Hiawatha, or 10 miles south of Deposit, moving eastat 20 mph.HAZARD...Tornado.SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught withoutshelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damageto roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage islikely.This dangerous storm will be near...Starlight around 805 PM EDT.Hancock around 810 PM EDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowestfloor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in amobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelterand protect yourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4185 7523 4189 7547 4195 7546 4198 7523TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 278DEG 16KT 4192 7538TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$$AJGWWUS51 KBGM 122357SVSBGMSevere Weather StatementNational Weather Service Binghamton NY757 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021NYC025-PAC127-130015-/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210713T0015Z/Delaware NY-Wayne PA-757 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FORSOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...At 757 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornadowas located over Hiawatha, or 10 miles south of Deposit, moving eastat 20 mph.HAZARD...Tornado.SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught withoutshelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damageto roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage islikely.This dangerous storm will be near...Starlight around 805 PM EDT.Hancock around 810 PM EDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowestfloor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in amobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelterand protect yourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4185 7523 4189 7547 4195 7546 4198 7523TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 278DEG 16KT 4192 7538TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$$AJGWOUS20 KWNS 122339WWASPCSPC WW-A 122340DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-130040-STATUS REPORT ON WW 374SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BWITO 30 NW ILG TO 20 N PHL TO 20 N ACY TO 25 ESE ACY.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268..WENDT..07/12/21ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...CTP...&&STATUS REPORT FOR WS 374SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREASDEC003-130040-DE. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARENEW CASTLE$$MDC015-130040-MD. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECECIL$$NJC005-007-015-033-130040-NJ. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTERSALEM$$PAC029-045-130040-PA. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECHESTER DELAWARE$$ANZ430-130040-CW. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED AREDELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE$$THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.$$