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WTNT45 KNHC 072057TCDAT5Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has movedinto extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakeningsince earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt.This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since nosurface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds havebeen recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropicaldepression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models showsome restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along theMid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imageryfrom the global models at that time depict the system resembling afrontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will becompletely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to whenextratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches havebeen issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England atthis time.The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast toturn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around thenorthwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge whileaccelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough overthe eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The officialforecast is about the same as the previous one and closely followsthe multi-model consensus.Key Messages:1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, andisolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavyrainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina,and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urbanflooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of SouthCarolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New EnglandThursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of thecoastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next dayor two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of thecoasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical stormconditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlanticand southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Pasch