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ABNT20 KNHC 021148TWOATTropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recentlyupgraded Hurricane Elsa, located about 20 miles west-southwest ofBarbados.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.$$Forecaster LattoWTNT45 KNHC 021505TCDAT5Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0520211100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized,and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts ateye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbadosnear 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at thattime. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. Itshould be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developedat 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed.The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to theforecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory.The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestwardnotion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr.After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northwardby 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by amid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergentaround this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from awest-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or westernCuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latterportion of the track forecast remains low confidence.The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening duringthe next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of lightwesterly shear. After that, land interaction, along with lessfavorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely tocause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows majoradjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on theinitial intensity.It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 milesand 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given thelarger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend wellaway from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus onthe exact forecast points.Key Messages:1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning areain the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical stormconditions are expected in other portions of the Windward andLeeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the HurricaneWarning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions areexpected with hurricane conditions possible along the southerncoast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica.2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windwardand southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rainbands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southernHispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslidesare possible.3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge andrainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early nextweek, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos andthe Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa'sprogress and updates to the forecast.4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in theFlorida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due toElsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates tothe forecast.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND$$Forecaster BevenWTNT65 KNHC 021545TCUAT5Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0520211145 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued aHurricane Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republicfrom Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.$$Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven