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ABNT20 KNHC 262333TWOATTropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wavelocated over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundredmiles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to producedisorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slowdevelopment of this system is possible through the middle of nextweek while it moves a little faster toward the west and thenwest-northwest at about 20 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.A surface trough located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermudais producing a broad area of disorganized showers andthunderstorms. Surface pressures are currently high across thearea, and significant development of this system is notanticipated while it moves westward and then west-northwestward atabout 15 mph over the next few days, reaching the coast of thesoutheastern United States late Monday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.$$Forecaster BergWTPZ35 KNHC 262350TCPEP5BULLETINHurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 7ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021700 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ENRIQUE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERNCOAST OF MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...17.1N 105.9WABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICOABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes MexicoA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas MexicoA Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwesterncoast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------Recent satellite data indicate that the center of Enrique islocated slightly south of earlier estimates. At 700 PM CDT (0000UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude17.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward thewest-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest isexpected later tonight with the storm maintaining a northwestheading for the next several days. On the forecast track, the coreof Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to thesouthwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with highergusts. Some slight strengthening is possible in the short term, butEnrique is expected to begin weakening early next week as it beginsmoving over cooler waters.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) fromthe center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140miles (220 km).The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the TropicalCyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45KNHC, and on the web atwww.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portionsof the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westwardwithin the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropicalstorm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rainaccumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco insouthwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions ofsouthwestern Mexico.SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwesterncoast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likelyto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Pleaseconsult products from your local weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.$$Forecaster Brown/Berg