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ACUS11 KWNS 212251SWOMCDSPC MCD 212250VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-212345-Mesoscale Discussion 1056NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0550 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021Areas affected...central and eastern New York into northeastPennsylvania and far northern New JerseyConcerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...303...Valid 212250Z - 212345ZThe severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300, 303continues.SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms with a history of severegusts and wind damage will likely continue to pose a risk fordamaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this evening. Additionalstorm development/consolidation across southern New York andnortheast Pennsylvania will pose a risk for damaging winds.DISCUSSION...Ahead of the cold front moving across western New York,a line of thunderstorms near Syracuse has produced a measured severegust and numerous reports of wind damage over the last hour. Radardata shows a well developed comma head/bowing segment developingeast of the KTYX radar. Damaging winds will be likely with thiscluster of thunderstorms as they track to the east northeast overthe next couple of hours. Regional VWP data also suggests somemesovortex tornado threat may evolve with 0-1km SRH around 100 ms/s2and 0-3km line normal shear around 30 kts. Some weakening of thisportions of the line may occur closer to the border with Vermont asdownstream convection has resulted in some airmass modification.Until then, a corridor of greater severe potential will likelyevolve.To the south across portions of northeastern Pennsylvania andsouthern New York, several clusters of developing thunderstorms werenoted along a line from Binghamton to Allentown. Additional stormdevelopment should consolidate into a linear mode with the potentialfor increasing damaging wind threat as storms track through northernNew Jersey and southern New York this evening...Lyons.. 06/21/2021...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LAT...LON 43997550 44157421 44087345 43797318 43207336 4194735041117386 40787515 40837621 40937662 41397709 4236764042957612 43997550AXPZ20 KNHC 212152TWDEPTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL2205 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through2030 UTC....TROPICAL WAVES...A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N with axis near 98W,moving west near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from04N to 16N between 95W and 105W....INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N110W to 11N123W to07N133W. ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 06N140W. Aside theconvection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderateto isolated strong convection is N of 3.5N E of 87W. Scatteredmoderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 87W and 95W, from07N to 13N between 105W and 120W, and from 05N to 08N W of 129W.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja Californiapeninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderateNW winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds along thecoast of Cabo San Lucas. Altimeter data from early this afternoonindicate that wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. Theseconditions will prevail through Thu. Winds will increase acrossthe Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night into theweekend as a ridge shift eastward and builds across the region.In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SEwinds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heightswill be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period.Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of the Gulf ofTehuantepec late this week, and some gradual development ispossible while it moves WNW parallel and offshore southernMexico. Moderate SE winds are forecast to develop over the Oaxacaand Chiapas offshores waters by Thu, and increase to fresh windsThu night. Fresh to strong winds are likely in that region onFri.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRALAMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoontrough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoontrough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell.Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across the entireforecast area through Wed, then a gentle SW breeze will continueinto the weekend south of the monsoon trough. Long period SWswell across the regional waters will gradually subside throughWed.Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of Guatemala byWed, increasing winds to moderate to fresh. Some gradualdevelopment is possible as the system moves WNW.REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A high pressure ridge is across the waters west of 116W and iscentered on a 1029 mb high near 39N143W. The pressure gradientbetween this area of high pressure and lower pressure within themonsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds northof 08N and west of 134W. Mainly moderate SW winds prevail southof the monsoon trough with seas ranging between 7 to 8 ft insoutherly swell. This swell will gradually subside through Wednight. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected toremain in the 7-8 ft range through tonight then subside to 6-7ft through mid-week.$$RamosWTNT43 KNHC 212032TCDAT3Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 17NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east ofVirginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharpsouth-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. Inaddition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of thecyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 ktat around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has beenincreased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classificationof T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected tocontinue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonightahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that ismoving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, thecyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forwardspeed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. Thenew NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track,and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidancesuite.Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change instrength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving oversub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water aheadof the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropicalextratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transitioncould occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast issimilar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensityconsensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/2100Z 37.5N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 22/1800Z 42.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP36H 23/0600Z 46.0N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Stewart