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FONT13 KNHC 180238PWSAT3POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0320210300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUMSUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIMEEASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIMECENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIMEWIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONSCHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)......50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)......64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYSPROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHEREOP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURINGAN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENTX INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENTPROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROMTIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUEPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WEDFORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -LOCATION KTATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11)MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 18(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 10(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)$$FORECASTER BEVENWTNT43 KNHC 180238TCDAT3Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 2NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0320211000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over thesouthwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in organizationduring the past several hours, and the associated convection lieswell to the east of the broad and poorly defined center. Theinitial intensity will be held at 25 kt based partially on shipreports from the northeastern and northern parts of the system.Due to the poorly defined center, the initial motion is a highlyuncertain 360/8. The system should move generally northward forthe next 24-36 h to a position near the coast of Louisiana,followed by a motion toward the northeast across the southeasternUnited States as it moves through a weakness in the subtropicalridge caused by an upper-level trough over Texas, northern Mexico,and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track is basically anupdate of the previous forecast. It should be noted that thelatest GFS run continues to forecast a re-formation of the center tothe north sometime on Friday, and the forecast forward motion triesto account for this possibility.The aforementioned upper-level trough is causing shear over thesystem, and present indications are that some shear will persistthrough landfall and hinder development. The intensity forecastcalls for the low to become a tropical cyclone in about 12 h,followed by some modest strengthening to tropical storm strength at24-36 h. This would be followed by weakening over land, with thesystem dissipating over the southeastern United States between 72-96 h. There is a chance that, due to the interaction with theupper-level trough, the system may take on subtropical cyclonecharacteristics instead of tropical cyclone characteristics. Thenew intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and itlies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, usersshould not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall andwind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrivewell in advance of landfall.Key Messages:1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerableflash, urban and small stream flooding beginning Friday andcontinuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast,spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areasnear and well to the east of the center along portions of thecentral Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to theAlabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 18/0300Z 23.5N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE24H 19/0000Z 27.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND48H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND60H 20/1200Z 34.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND72H 21/0000Z 35.6N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Beven