photo #1244947

AXPZ20 KNHC 210344TWDEPTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0405 UTC Fri May 21 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through0330 UTC....INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...The monsoon trough extends westward from 10N86W to a 1009 mb lowpressure near 10N98W to 10N110W. The ITCZ continues from 10N110Wto 09N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection isnoted from 09N to 10N between 98W and 99W, and from 07N to 12Nbetween 124W and 139W.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Fresh NW winds are currently west of Baja California Norte, whereseas are 8 to 9 ft. Moderate N winds are offshore BajaCalifornia Sur. Gentle to moderate SE to S breezes and slightseas prevail in the Gulf of California. Farther south, gentle Wto NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in S swell are noted.For the forecast, fresh NW winds west of Baja California Nortewill spread S to the waters offshore Baja California Sur into theweekend. Seas will increase west of Baja California tonight andFri in mixed NW and SW swell. Moderate to fresh northerly windsare expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Mon.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, andWITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, with somemoderate S winds to the south. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in S to SWswell, except 8 to 9 ft in the waters off Ecuador and southernColombia.For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swellwill continue to impact the offshore forecast waters throughearly Sat, then subside Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh Ewinds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekendthrough early next week. Light to gentle winds are expected tocontinue through the weekend elsewhere.REMAINDER OF THE AREA...The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of15N. The pressure gradient between it and comparatively lowerpressure in the deep tropics supports fresh NE trade winds northof the ITCZ and west of 130W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much ofthe open Pacific west of 115W, except for north of 25N and eastof 125W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. S to SW swell is evident eastof 120W and south of 15N, where seas are averaging 8 to 9 ft. Aweak low pressure area is centered well south of southern Mexiconear 10N98W.For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will allow the areaof fresh trade winds to the north of the ITCZ to expand in arealcoverage tonight and Fri to cover the area west of 115W. Thiswill cause the area of 8 to 10 ft seas currently west of BajaCalifornia to spread westward. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft overmuch of the area, except 10 to 12 ft north of 22N and east of125W. S to SW swell south of 15N and east of 115W will subsidelate Fri. Looking ahead, little change is expected into earlynext week.$$KONARIKABNT20 KNHC 202310TWOATTropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:A non-tropical low pressure area located about 625 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is forecast to strengthen into a storm-forcelow pressure system tonight. On Friday, the low is expected to turnwest-southwestward over warmer waters and will likely become asubtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda. Afterthat time, the low is forecast to move northward and northeastwardinto a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday.Additional information on this developing low pressure area can befound in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean PredictionCenter and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch,issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over thewestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of lowpressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive forsome development over the next day or so before the disturbancemoves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Fridaynight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavyrainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwesternLouisiana on Friday and through the weekend. Additional informationon the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in productsissued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can befound under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, andonline at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Latto/Brown