photo #1216644

Tropical Storm Andres 2021Last Modified: 18:00 May 9, 2021 UTCStorm Andres 2021Andres 2021The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of banding features. However the cyclone is producing some very cold cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation. A partial scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 knots in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to lower-troposphere. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model guidance.The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the previously estimated track. Andres should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is south of much of the model guidance on account of the more southward center location. This is not far from the latest GFS model solution.Forecaster Pasch. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).Invest 96WLast Modified: 18:00 May 9, 2021 UTCInvest 96W96WWind speed of Invest 96W is 30 km/h, with sea-level pressure at 1008 mb.This area is under investigation for its potential to develop into a significant tropical cyclone. There are no warnings at the current time.