photo #1159328

Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021Areas affected...parts of South Carolina into North CarolinaConcerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102135Z - 102330ZProbability of Watch Issuance...20 percentSUMMARY...An uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible over the next few hours, but the risk appears too low for watch consideration.DISCUSSION...An embedded lead wave is currently moving across northern GA and into the western Carolinas, with a concentration of shallow convection along the GA/SC border. Surface analysis shows temperatures in the 70s F ahead of this feature, with low 60s F dewpoints resulting in around 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Little lightning has been noted as of late, due to relatively warm midlevel temperatures and thus shallow nature of the convection.Effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 exists over the western Carolinas, along with 50 kt effective bulk shear. This may support weakly rotating storms over the next few hours, before the boundary layer stabilizes...Jewell.. 04/10/2021...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...LAT...LON 34378009 33968062 33768118 33828169 33998235 34478263 35068241 35578190 35808127 35928063 35778000 35317973 34787992 34378009