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AXNT20 KNHC 272356TWDATTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0005 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 32N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through2340 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in thesouth-central Caribbean Sea between high pressure north of thebasin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue tosupport fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northernColombia, pulsing to gale force especially during the overnightand early morning hours. Similar conditions are forecast throughthe middle of next week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during thelate night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Pleaseread the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National HurricaneCenter on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for moredetails....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guineanear 09N13W to 03N20W to 0N26W. The ITCZ continues from 0N26W to04S37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection isnoted from 02N-06N between 03W-25W.GULF OF MEXICO...A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic Oceanto across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, supportingmoderate SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow overthe western half of the gulf. Shallow moisture is supportingisolated showers over the NE gulf while a plume of low-levelmoisture shown in Layered Precipitable Water imagery supportsareas of dense fog over the north-central and NW gulf.Fresh to strong winds will develop near and to the NW of theYucatan peninsula tonight into the early morning hours due tolocal effects. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of MexicoSun morning following by fresh to strong northerly winds. Windswill reach minimal gale force Sun afternoon through Sun night nearthe Tampico area, with seas building up to 10 or 11 ft. The frontwill extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche onMon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northwardMon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will moveoff the Texas coast Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expectedbehind the front.CARIBBEAN SEA...Please see the Special Features section above for details on aGale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea offshore ofnorthern Colombia.Fresh to strong trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, acrossthe approach to the WindWard Passage, south of Hispaniola,southwest of Puerto Rico and in the south-central Caribbean.Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas arein the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highestoffshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the 5-7 ft rangeelsewhere. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across theregion, with isolated to widely scattered showers embedded in thetrade wind flow.High pressure across the west-central Atlantic will continue tosupport fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbeanthrough Thu night, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coastof Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewheresouth of 18N and E of 80W through Thu. Fresh to strong winds willcontinue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in theWindward Passage through Tue night.ATLANTIC OCEAN...A surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 32N37W covers thecentral and western Atlantic waters and provides moderate tofresh easterly winds W of 35W between 21N to 25N with seas in the7 to 8 ft range over the central Atlantic waters. Gentle tolocally moderate SE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ftrange. Over the eastern Atlantic, the pressure gradient betweenthe ridge and a 1000 mb low just N of the Canary IlaAXPZ20 KNHC 280308TWDEPTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0405 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean fromthe Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information isbased on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, andmeteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through0300 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move throughthe Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow thefront through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf ofTehuantepec by Sun night. Seas will build to 11 ft by Monmorning, mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell.Winds are expected to be below gale force by early Mon eveningwhile seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressurefollowing in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexicoweakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees ona second round of gales starting potentially Thu morning andcontinuing into the next weekend....INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZcontinues from 06N90W to 06N110W to 03N135W. Scattered moderateto isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between107W and 125W.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Recent ship observations indicate moderate to fresh northerlywinds off the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur, and in thesouthern Gulf of California. Earlier ship observations and ascatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate NW to N windselsewhere north of 20N. Seas estimated to be are 5 to 7 ft in NWswell off Baja California, 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf ofCalifornia, and 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf of California.Light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico, with 3 to 5ft seas in SW swell. A few showers are possible among theRevillagigedo Islands. Light smoke due to agricultural andforest fires is noted over the offshore waters south of CaboCorrientes.For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area willsupport fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of Californiainto Sun. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected toreturn to Tehuantepec late Sun night, reaching gale force. Pleasesee the special features section for further details. Lookingahead, gap winds to gale force will return to the Gulf ofTehuantepec by Thu.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, andWITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds continue in theGulf of Papagayo with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NEwinds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to strong tonightwith seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerlywinds will continue afterward to Mon. Light variable winds areelsewhere in the Central American offshore waters with waveheights to six in long period SW swell. Scattered showers andthunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast of thenorthern Panama.For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds willpersist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, whilemoderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama.Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderatelong-period SW swell will prevail across the region the nextseveral days.REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the areato Baja California Sur. An upper low has been supporting thedevelopment of a broad surface trough from 20N to 25N, which isnow weakening near 137W. Recent scatterometer satellite datashowed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 130W. Analtimeter satellite pass indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in thisarea, likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SWswell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W.For the forecast, the trough will dissipate Sun as continues tomove west of the area, allowing high pressure to build north ofthe area. This pattern will support and expAWUS01 KWNH 280346FFGMPDTNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280944-Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD1145 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern MS...Southwest TNConcerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possibleValid 280344Z - 280944ZSummary...Thunderstorms producing hourly rain totals 1-2" couldlead to instances of flash flooding across portions of farsouthwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and eastern Arkansastonight.Discussion...500 mb trough axis and jet streak over the OhioValley is providing broad large scale forcing for ascent overportions of the Mid South. Along/ahead of a cold front analyzed tothe west, the environment is characterized by dewpoints in the lowto mid 60s. The converging flow in the low levels has allowed fora pool of higher moisture to set up, shown by the latest blendedPW products showing 1.6-1.8".Deep convection continues as of 0330Z evident by the cooling cloudtops seen in IR imagery and regional radar shows several bowingline segments/clusters forming from southern AR to southwest TN.This activity will continue to tap into the increasing low leveljet (increasing from 20-25 kts to near 50 kts by 08Z) and the axisof higher instability expected to remain in place through thenight (RAP suggests 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE exists until 09Z).Storm motions should be fairly progressive and this could limitthe overall rainfall duration but with the mean flow orientedalong the storm motions, it's likely that a few of the clusterswill track/repeat over the same areas. This could drop severalinches of rainfall over the course of the night and the 00Z hi-resguidance shows the potential for 2-4" localized amounts. The HREFprobabilities for 1-2"/hr totals remain high (60-80 percent)through 10Z over northern MS/far southwest TN.Aside from southwest TN and far northern MS, much of the MPD areahighlighted has seen drier than normal soil conditions in the last14 days. This combined with the relatively progressive nature ofthe storms could limit more widespread issues. However, repeatingrounds over any sensitive area could lead to flash floodingthrough 10Z.Taylor...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...LAT...LON 35418873 35088795 34498828 33798923 3308905133119164 33669224 34419151 35259016ACUS11 KWNS 280345SWOMCDSPC MCD 280345ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-280515-Mesoscale Discussion 0293NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1045 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021Areas affected...northern Mississippi into northern Alabama andsouthern Middle TennesseeConcerning...Tornado Watch 64...Valid 280345Z - 280515ZThe severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 64 continues.SUMMARY...Storms moving across northern Mississippi may affect partsof northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee later tonight,with damaging wind threat. A brief tornado is also possible.DISCUSSION...Several organized clusters of storms stretch fromsouthwest TN and northern MS into southeast AR and northern LA. Someof these storms are moving east/northeast around 40 kt, and willapproach the AL border by around 06Z. Strong deep-layer shear and1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will support a continued severe threat.Damaging gusts are most likely given currently observed storm mode,but veering winds with height and strong southwest winds off thesurface will also support a threat of brief tornadoes associatedwith the bows...Jewell.. 03/28/2021...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LAT...LON 34198647 34098805 33758898 33179025 32869146 3302918133469186 33779151 34059117 34319046 34709011 3496900335278927 35338811 35288690 34958633 34438628 34198647WOUS20 KWNS 280435WWASPCSPC WW-A 280435ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-280540-STATUS REPORT ON WW 64SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE PBFTO 45 SW MEM TO 25 SSE MEM TO 35 ESE MEM TO 25 N MKL...JEWELL..03/28/21ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...OHX...&&STATUS REPORT FOR WT 64SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREASARC003-017-107-280540-AR. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREASHLEY CHICOT PHILLIPS$$LAC035-067-123-280540-LA. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED AREEAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL$$MSC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-033-043-051-053-055-057-071-081-083-093-095-097-105-107-115-117-119-125-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-151-155-161-163-280540-MS. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALCORN ATTALA BENTONBOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLLCHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAYCOAHOMA DESOTO GRENADAHOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENAITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEELEFLORE MARSHALL MONROEMONTGOMERY OKTIBBEHA PANOLAPONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMANSHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIETATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGOTUNICA UNION WASHINGTONWEBSTER YALOBUSHA YAZOO$$TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-077-109-113-135-181-280540-TN. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECHESTER CROCKETT DECATURFAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDINHENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISONPERRY WAYNE$$THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.$$