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AXNT20 KNHC 151753TWDATTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1805 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 32N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through1730 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will moveeastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force Wwinds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31Nborder to 29N between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tuemorning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, asthe system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminishto a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tuenight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from theNational Hurricane Center at the website:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressurenorth of the area combined with the low over Colombia will giveway to gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and Tuesnight. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh tostrong NE to E winds Wed night through Fri night. Please readthe latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National HurricaneCenter at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml formore details....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16Wto 04N25W to 02N33W. The ITCZ continues from 02N33W to 00N40W tothe coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous moderate and scatteredstrong convection is occurring south of 07N, east of 20W.Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 20Wand 28W.GULF OF MEXICO...A weak stationary front continues to linger off the Texas andMexico coast from 30N94W to 21N97W. Some showers may be presentdue to shallow moisture along the front. Weak ridging prevailsacross the N Gulf. Fresh to strong E winds are north of theYucatan Peninsula and fresh SE winds are west of the Peninsula.The remainder of the Gulf has gentle to moderate E to SE winds.Seas range 3-5 ft across the Gulf with calm seas in the NE Gulf.The frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coasttoday before weakening as it lifts farther inland by thisevening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will developover the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A coldfront is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and moveacross the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit thesoutheast Gulf by Fri.CARIBBEAN SEA...See the Special Features section for more information on the galewarning of Colombia.Fresh to strong NE trades north of Colombia and in the centralCaribbean, as well as fresh to strong NE winds in the WindwardPassage remain due to the pressure gradient between higherpressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia.Continuous ridging is allowing for fair weather conditions overthe basin. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail.Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the entire basin, with thehighest seas in the south-central Caribbean.Pulses of gale-force winds will occur north of Colombia tonightand Tue night. From Wed night until the end of the week, expectfresh to strong winds in this region. Meanwhile, pulses of freshto strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and southof Hispaniola through Tue night. By Tue, fresh to strong tradeswill dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80Wand will continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds areforecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night.ATLANTIC OCEAN...See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seasnorthern border.A cold front entered the discussion arACUS11 KWNS 151949SWOMCDSPC MCD 151949ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-152145-Mesoscale Discussion 0181NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0249 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and much of central MissouriConcerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikelyValid 151949Z - 152145ZProbability of Watch Issuance...20 percentSUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are possible thisafternoon. These storms may pose a threat for large hail, damagingwinds, and perhaps a tornado or two.DISCUSSION...Boundary layer heating beneath very cold mid-leveltemperatures has destabilized portions of eastern Kansas and westernMissouri where MLCAPE is now around 200 to 300 J/kg per SPCmesoanalysis. Expect further destabilization to around 500 J/kg andexpect it to expand eastward across Missouri as mid-leveltemperatures cool. Expect storms to form in the next 1-2 hours in anarea of convergence along the surface trough which extends from nearTopeka, KS to Springfield, MO at 19Z, as it lifts northeastward.Moderate to strong effective shear (around 35 to 40 knots per KSGFVWP) will aid with storm organization through the afternoon. Thelimited instability will be the primary detriment for strongerstorms, but a few severe storms are possible, especially acrosscentral and eastern Missouri where instability and shear are bothexpected to be maximized. The expanding area of cumulus/weak radarreturns northeast of Springfield, MO is likely where the strongeststorm or two will develop.Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold mid-level temperatures combinedwith a favorable shear profile for supercells will support a threatfor large hail with the stronger storms. In addition, some damagingwinds may be possible given the well-mixed sub-cloud layer.A landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out in close proximity tothe surface/mid-level low, mostly across eastern Kansas, where lapserates are steep and low-level vorticity is maximized. In addition, aseparate area with a supercell tornado threat will exist in centraland eastern Missouri. Low-level backed flow north and east of thisboundary is leading to effective SRH around 100 to 125 m2/s2 whichmay increase to near 200 m2/s2 though the afternoon. In addition,ingestion of low-level vorticity along the boundary may increase thetornado threat. However, storm motion in relation to the orientationof this boundary does call into question whether these storms willbe surface based or if they will be slightly elevated on thecool-side of the boundary.Overall, the limited instability and resultant marginal threat maypreclude watch issuance. However, a locally favorable environment,especially in central Missouri, will continue to be monitored...Bentley/Grams.. 03/15/2021...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...LAT...LON 37929545 38089585 38529607 39079604 39599583 3971952439729399 39519223 39389126 39069046 38749025 3830901537649052 37349160 37279279 37669333 37879399 3791947037909521 37929545NWUS21 KWNS 151952STAMTSTORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH 14 MAR 2021NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0239 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2021 ...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES ..2021.. 2020 2019 2018 3YR 3YR 3YR PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 21 20 19 18 AV 21 20 19 18 AV--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --JAN 16 - 86^ 22 15 41^ 1 7 0 0 2 1 3 0 0 1FEB 11 - 42^ 27 48 39^ 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1MAR 24 - 83^ 107 55 82^ - 25 23 0 16 - 3 1 0 1APR - - 271^ 272 130 224^ - 38 7 1 15 - 13 4 1 6MAY - - 126^ 510 170 269^ - 1 7 1 3 - 1 4 1 2JUN - - 90^ 177 155 141^ - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0JUL - - 99^ 101 92 97^ - 1 0 1 1 - 1 0 1 1AUG - - 182^ 78 81 114^ - 3 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 1SEP - - 38^ 85 108 77^ - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0OCT - - 19^ 65 123 69^ - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0NOV - - 21^ 16 83 40^ - 0 1 3 1 - 0 1 2 1DEC - - 18^ 57 66 47^ - 0 3 1 1 - 0 2 1 1--- ---- ---- ----- ---- ---- ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --SUM 51 --- 1075^ 1517 1126 1240^ 4 76 42 10 41 2 24 12 9 15*PRELIMINARY REPORTS.^PRELIMINARY/INCOMPLETE VERSION OF FINAL COUNTS.PREL = 2021 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.ACT = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS.COMPARISONS BETWEEN PRELIMINARY AND ACTUAL COUNTS SHOULD BE AVOIDED...MARSH..03/15/2021