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AWUS01 KWNH 250216FFGMPDALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250814-Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD916 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022Areas affected...southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, farsouthwestern AlabamaConcerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possibleValid 250214Z - 250814ZSummary...Areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals are expected throughat least 07Z, but should result in localized/isolated flash floodpotential across the discussion area.Discussion...An MCS has materialized along and just north of theI-10/12 and US-84 corridors across southern Mississippi andsouthern Louisiana. The MCS was focused along strong 850mbconvergence in the region originating from confluent flow south ofthe MCS and a warm front in the general vicinity. Marginallyunstable conditions south of the front were helping to maintainconvection where convergence is maximized. Additionally, theorientation of the front (generally parallel to west-southwesterlyflow aloft) was allowing for training and repeating convection tooccur near the MCS. Hourly rates of 1-2 inch/hr rainfall wereobserved recently beneath the MCS (from Baton Rouge toFranklinton), and 3-4 inch totals in 3 hours have also been noted.The ongoing regime should result in a fairly narrow corridor of2-3 inch rainfall totals (with spotty 4 inch amounts) extendingeastward from the ongoing MCS into southern Mississippi, withsomewhat lower totals potentially occurring closer to the NewOrleans Metro and coastal Mississippi. These rainfall totals willstruggle to exceed FFG thresholds on a widespread basis, but maybe enough to cause localized ponding/runoff in sensitive areas andlow-lying spots. The axis of peak low-level/850mb convergenceshould shift slowly eastward into southwestern Alabama especiallyafter 07Z, with heavier precipitation expected to materialize inthose areas between 07-08Z.Cook...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...LAT...LON 31968805 31838751 31168749 30478799 2971893729479101 29649311 30399266 30969129 3135907431878938