Chris Swafford
on May 26, 2021
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ABPZ20 KNHC 261732
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 26 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward at
5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that has been
relocated to near 28W from 10N southward, moving W around 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 27W to 30W. The wave has no significant surface
component and is analyzed based upon GFS-based 700 mb tropical
wave diagnostics.
A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added the surface
analysis along 13W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
18W. A surface trough associated with the wave was noted in the
scatterometer data.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau
near 12N17W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 05N26W,
breaks for a tropical wave, then continues again from 05N31W to
06N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
06N between 20W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 10N west of 52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extending along 30N just north of the Gulf of
Mexico is promoting generally SE gentle to moderate breezes. No
significant shower or deep convective activity is occurring
today. Seas are 2-4 ft over the NE Gulf and 4-5 ft elsewhere.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected today
through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh to
locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front is
expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun
and stall across the region by Sun night. Expect moderate north
to northeast winds behind the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the
Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is contributing to strong to
near gale NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean today.
Elsewhere E trades are moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW
Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that
extends from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S
central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central portions
of the Caribbean through early Thu as high pressure reside
offshore of the NE Florida coast. Winds will diminish
significantly late Thu through Sun night as the high collapses.
In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate today and
become gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward
Passage tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.
Ridging from a strong 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at
38N46W extends east-west north of our waters. The pressure
gradient south of the ridge is forcing NE to E trades that are
fresh to strong south of 23N with weaker winds farther north. A
surface trough - associated with a vigorous upper-level trough -
extends from a weak 1022 mb low at 33N61W to 28N69W. Scattered
showers are present from 23N to 30N between 55W to 62W. Seas are
8-10 ft south of 15N west of 40W as well as north of 15N east of
25W and 5-7 ft elsehwere.
In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail north
of 24N through Thu as weak low pressure just east of Bermuda
interrupts
ACUS02 KWNS 261733
SWODY2
SPC AC 261731
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday
night from parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significant
severe wind gusts, and several tornadoes are possible.
...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the central High Plains on
Thursday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place
across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a
low will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley as a
trailing cold front advances southeastward across the central
Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
front during the morning across southern Kansas, in response to the
low-level jet. To the south of this convection across much of the
southern Plains, the airmass will be moist and unstable. Moderate
instability is expected to develop by midday across much of Oklahoma
and southeast Kasnas. A sharp gradient of instability may be present
during the early afternoon across far southern Kansas or far
northern Oklahoma related to an outflow boundary associated with the
morning convective cluster. Convection should gradually increase
along the outflow boundary, moving eastward across northeast
Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the
afternoon.
In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings by
21Z/Thursday to the north of Tulsa to near Springfield have 0-6 km
shear in the 40 to 45 kt range. This will support supercell
development, mainly with cells that remain discrete or with storms
at the southern end of short line-segments that develop. 0-3 km
storm relative helicities are forecast to increase to about 200
m2/s2 across northeast Oklahoma during the late afternoon suggesting
that a tornado threat will be possible. Large hail and wind damage
will also be likely with supercells. Damaging wind gusts of greater
than 65 knot could occur, especially if a cold pool can organize.
Further southwest into west Texas and western Oklahoma, the southern
part of an upper-level trough will move across the southern High
Plains on Thursday. A surface trough is expected to deepen across
west Texas as a cold front advances southward into the Texas
Panhandle. Moderate instability should be in place by afternoon
along and south of the front across much of the southern High
Plains. A dryline will develop on the western edge of the moderate
instability with convective initiation taking place just to the east
of the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. These storms should
move eastward and affect parts of the Caprock, Low Rolling Plains
and western Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/Kg range with 0-6 km
shear between 40 and 50 kt. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail. The instability and mid-level lapse rates exceeding
8.5 C/Km will make hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter
possible. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat should
accompany supercells during the late afternoon and early evening.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the central Plains
on Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow remains in place
across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low
will move eastward across Iowa as a trailing cold front advances
southeastward across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A
morning MCS is expected to track eastward across southern Iowa and
northern Missouri early in the period, moving southeastward across
central and southern Illinois during the late morning and early
afternoon. This MCS could be associated with damaging wind gus
ACUS11 KWNS 261808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261807
NYZ000-261930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021
Areas affected...portions of central and eastern New York
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...
Valid 261807Z - 261930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
continues.
SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are expected to continue over
the next couple of hours across parts of central/eastern New York.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms from Oneida to Cortland counties in
central New York has been producing sporadic damaging winds over the
last hour or so. Recent data from the New York Mesonet has shown
maximum measured gusts around 45-55 mph with these storms. Given a
similar downstream airmass and a relative maximum in low level lapse
rates (around 8-8.5 C/km), this line of convection is expected to
maintain intensity for the next 1-2 hours. As a result, a corridor
of damaging wind is possible as the line tracks eastward toward the
Albany vicinity through 19-20z.
..Leitman.. 05/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 43237569 43317518 43257426 43157383 42937358 42567353
42317394 42237462 42357562 42597623 43057590 43237569
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
233 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
232 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
124 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
216 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
213 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHWESTERN OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
205 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.
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