ABPZ20 KNHC 261732TWOEPTropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Wed May 26 2021For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred milessouth of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by thisweekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for somegradual development of this system as it moves generally westward at5 to 10 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundredmiles southwest of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Somegradual development is possible thereafter as the system moveswestward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster PaschAXNT20 KNHC 261805TWDATTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1805 UTC Wed May 26 2021Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through1700 UTC....TROPICAL WAVES...An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that has beenrelocated to near 28W from 10N southward, moving W around 15-20kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06Nbetween 27W to 30W. The wave has no significant surfacecomponent and is analyzed based upon GFS-based 700 mb tropicalwave diagnostics.A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added the surfaceanalysis along 13W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate andisolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to18W. A surface trough associated with the wave was noted in thescatterometer data....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissaunear 12N17W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 05N26W,breaks for a tropical wave, then continues again from 05N31W to06N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate andisolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to06N between 20W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is notedsouth of 10N west of 52W.GULF OF MEXICO...A surface ridge extending along 30N just north of the Gulf ofMexico is promoting generally SE gentle to moderate breezes. Nosignificant shower or deep convective activity is occurringtoday. Seas are 2-4 ft over the NE Gulf and 4-5 ft elsewhere.Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected todaythrough Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coastextends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh tolocally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly offthe Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front isexpected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sunand stall across the region by Sun night. Expect moderate northto northeast winds behind the front.CARIBBEAN SEA...A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high north of theBahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is contributing to strong tonear gale NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean today.Elsewhere E trades are moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate andisolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SWCaribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough thatextends from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the Scentral Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere.Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central portionsof the Caribbean through early Thu as high pressure resideoffshore of the NE Florida coast. Winds will diminishsignificantly late Thu through Sun night as the high collapses.In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate today andbecome gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong winds areexpected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the WindwardPassage tonight.ATLANTIC OCEAN...Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wavesmoving west across the eastern Atlantic.Ridging from a strong 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at38N46W extends east-west north of our waters. The pressuregradient south of the ridge is forcing NE to E trades that arefresh to strong south of 23N with weaker winds farther north. Asurface trough - associated with a vigorous upper-level trough -extends from a weak 1022 mb low at 33N61W to 28N69W. Scatteredshowers are present from 23N to 30N between 55W to 62W. Seas are8-10 ft south of 15N west of 40W as well as north of 15N east of25W and 5-7 ft elsehwere.In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail northof 24N through Thu as weak low pressure just east of BermudainterruptsACUS02 KWNS 261733SWODY2SPC AC 261731Day 2 Convective OutlookNWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1231 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021Valid 271200Z - 281200Z...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OFTHE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THEOZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY......SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursdaynight from parts of the southern and central Great Plains into theOzarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significantsevere wind gusts, and several tornadoes are possible....Southern and Central Plains...An upper-level trough will move across the central High Plains onThursday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains in placeacross much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, alow will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley as atrailing cold front advances southeastward across the centralPlains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of thefront during the morning across southern Kansas, in response to thelow-level jet. To the south of this convection across much of thesouthern Plains, the airmass will be moist and unstable. Moderateinstability is expected to develop by midday across much of Oklahomaand southeast Kasnas. A sharp gradient of instability may be presentduring the early afternoon across far southern Kansas or farnorthern Oklahoma related to an outflow boundary associated with themorning convective cluster. Convection should gradually increasealong the outflow boundary, moving eastward across northeastOklahoma, far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during theafternoon.In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings by21Z/Thursday to the north of Tulsa to near Springfield have 0-6 kmshear in the 40 to 45 kt range. This will support supercelldevelopment, mainly with cells that remain discrete or with stormsat the southern end of short line-segments that develop. 0-3 kmstorm relative helicities are forecast to increase to about 200m2/s2 across northeast Oklahoma during the late afternoon suggestingthat a tornado threat will be possible. Large hail and wind damagewill also be likely with supercells. Damaging wind gusts of greaterthan 65 knot could occur, especially if a cold pool can organize.Further southwest into west Texas and western Oklahoma, the southernpart of an upper-level trough will move across the southern HighPlains on Thursday. A surface trough is expected to deepen acrosswest Texas as a cold front advances southward into the TexasPanhandle. Moderate instability should be in place by afternoonalong and south of the front across much of the southern HighPlains. A dryline will develop on the western edge of the moderateinstability with convective initiation taking place just to the eastof the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. These storms shouldmove eastward and affect parts of the Caprock, Low Rolling Plainsand western Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/Kg range with 0-6 kmshear between 40 and 50 kt. This will be favorable for supercellswith large hail. The instability and mid-level lapse rates exceeding8.5 C/Km will make hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameterpossible. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat shouldaccompany supercells during the late afternoon and early evening....Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...An upper-level trough will move eastward across the central Plainson Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow remains in placeacross the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a lowwill move eastward across Iowa as a trailing cold front advancessoutheastward across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Amorning MCS is expected to track eastward across southern Iowa andnorthern Missouri early in the period, moving southeastward acrosscentral and southern Illinois during the late morning and earlyafternoon. This MCS could be associated with damaging wind gusACUS11 KWNS 261808SWOMCDSPC MCD 261807NYZ000-261930-Mesoscale Discussion 0748NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0107 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021Areas affected...portions of central and eastern New YorkConcerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...Valid 261807Z - 261930ZThe severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205continues.SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are expected to continue overthe next couple of hours across parts of central/eastern New York.DISCUSSION...A line of storms from Oneida to Cortland counties incentral New York has been producing sporadic damaging winds over thelast hour or so. Recent data from the New York Mesonet has shownmaximum measured gusts around 45-55 mph with these storms. Given asimilar downstream airmass and a relative maximum in low level lapserates (around 8-8.5 C/km), this line of convection is expected tomaintain intensity for the next 1-2 hours. As a result, a corridorof damaging wind is possible as the line tracks eastward toward theAlbany vicinity through 19-20z...Leitman.. 05/26/2021...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...LAT...LON 43237569 43317518 43257426 43157383 42937358 4256735342317394 42237462 42357562 42597623 43057590 43237569BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA233 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY232 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK... SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA231 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA224 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS124 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA216 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTH CENTRAL SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY213 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHWESTERN OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY205 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.
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