AXPZ20 KNHC 080331
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL... View MoreAXPZ20 KNHC 080331
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon
trough near 12.5N104W this evening. Current winds are fresh to
strong, mainly in the northeast portion of the low, locally to 30
kt, with seas to 8 ft. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has become better organized since this morning, and
further development of this system is expected over the next few
days. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is now
likely to form over the weekend or early next week before
environmental conditions become less favorable as the system
moves gradually west-northwestward. This system has a medium
chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 07N74W to 07N90W to low pressure near
12.5N104W to 09N110W. The ITCZ continues from 09N110W to 03N133W
to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 09N between 80W and 83W, and within 180 nm in
the northeast semicircle of the low near 12.5N104W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 86W and 91W,
and from 09.5N to 13N between 104W and 114W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure located southwest of southern Mexico along the outer
offshore waters boundary.
A weak ridge extends from 27N119W to 17N110W. Moderate to locally
fresh winds prevail across the open waters north of 20N. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are in the Tehuantepec region. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except southerly at moderate to
fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range across the open waters, locally to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec
region.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec
region will diminish by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will
very briefly pulse in the northern Gulf of California in the
next few hours. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will
prevail through early next week. A set of NW swell will arrive
west of Baja California this weekend, building seas to 5-8 ft.
This swell will decay by mid-week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except
4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador in southerly swell.
For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to
fresh to strong early Sat and again early Sun. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will
move into the waters late in the weekend into early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure located southwest of southern Mexico along the outer
Mexican offshore waters boundary.
A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. A trough, the
remnants of a front, disrupts the ridge from 29N120W to 28N133W.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ,
highest just north of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-8 ft continues to
propagate across the northern waters behind the trough. Elsewhere,
seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the waters in a mix of
mainly long period southerly and northerly swell.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail
north of the ITCZ into early next week, except fresh to strong
north of 27N be
AXNT20 KNHC 072242
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 11N15W to 04N19W to
02N31W. The ITCZ extends from 02N31W to coastal Brazil near
03S42.5W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
located east of 16W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from
03.5N to 06N between 17W and 34W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the Florida Everglades near 25N81W to
the W Gulf near 25N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the
Florida Straits to 27N76W. Winds are light to gentle south of the
front and moderate northerlies north of the front. Seas are 2-4
ft across the Gulf. Scattered showers exist within 60 nmi of the
front and the trough. SAB analysis of satellite imagery indicates
light to medium smoke south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of
Mexico from agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico.
The portion of the cold front across the eastern Gulf will push
southward east of 90W through tonight, while the western portion
will dissipate by morning. Moderate to fresh return flow is
expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky
conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1024 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N45W
in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas. The reduced
pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of
Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and
only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with
the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica
near 09.5N76W to 10N85W.
A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
north.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 55W, a surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Bermuda High
west-southwestward to 25N77W. A cold front extends from 31N75W
to the Florida peninsula at 25N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 27N76W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection
is noted between 24N and 27N between 74W and 80W. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are occurring within 90 nmi of the front and
the trough. SW winds north of 29N ahead of the front are fresh to
strong, while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also
fresh to strong. Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft northeast of the Bahamas, 6-8 ft north of the front
and 6 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 12N between 50W and 60W.
The cold front will move across the Florida Keys this evening and
tonight and into the Straits. The northern part of the front will
shift eastward across the northern waters through Sat night. A
cold front will move south of 30N into the waters east of Florida
Tue night.
East of 55W, a surface ridge extends between 1024 mb Bermuda
High at 28N45W to 36N13W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to 7
ft south of 20N. No significant deep convection is occurring away
from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. As the Bermuda High builds in
place, trades will strengthen to fresh to strong Sat to Mon before
relaxing again on Tue. Seas will increase slightly in response.
On Mon and Tue a N swell will build seas north of 20N to 6 to 8
ft.
$$
Stripling
